06-10-2024, 04:40 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-su-...58629.html
Some new (to me at least) data on how some of the weapons are being utilized by Ukraine. Unfortunately some of the information does not directly address performance. “nearly 90 percent of dropped [Small Diameter Bombs] struck their target.” indicates the weapon is performing well overall. It unfortunately does not directly state that it is resisting the Russian GPS jamming. Of course, they may not actually know. The INS may have just worked well :-).
The statement regarding JDAMs is less powerful and less reassuring. "On the other hand, the effectiveness of the Joint Direct Attack Munition is restricted by the limited quantities of these weapons that are available to Ukraine". Does this mean it is working well now in the presence of jamming or not? Unknown. Ukraine is actively working on their own version. That may be because ours still doesn't work. Hopefully they have enough "dumb" bombs to make the effort worthwhile.
As far as HARMs go: "Golubtsov says that the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile, or HARM, is still used “daily” but that Russian forces have adapted to its presence by turning off their air defense radars and/or changing their operating frequencies." This statement pretty much confirms the missiles are operating in pre-planned mode. Of course, if the radar shuts down it can't shoot you and is out of the fight. The "changing frequency" part is harder to interpret. Depends on exactly what he means. Also depends on which HARMs they have. Radars can change frequencies but only over a limited bandwidth. Lots of radars are pulse-to-pulse agile so they don't have a "frequency" a such. Every pulse is on a different frequency. Many radars also have significant "chirp" inside each pulse. HARMs can deal with all that, especially the newer ones.
It is also clear that Ukraine believes their F-16 force is going to be able to hold Russian air at risk. There are good reasons to believe he is correct. The "crawl, walk, run" discussion is also a bit reassuring. There appears to be a plan of how to exploit their F-16s when they get them. Of course, there is still the question of mass. The recent ALCM missile strikes into Russia says the Ukrainians aren't unreasonably risk averse :-).
Looking at the "kills" painted on the Patriot the number of low-performance drones and cruise missiles is disturbing. Good they were destroyed, bad it required a Patriot to do it. Hopefully the F-16s can clean up those "low slow" targets and leave the Patriots for "fast" targets. There were plenty of those painted on too.
One think the US could (and IMO should) do is make the Link-16 feed from any AWACS in the area available to Ukraine in real time. This will assist the Ukrainian ADS right now and will also assist the F-16s when they arrive. The Ukrainian Saab won't be there for a while, so starting with the crawl phase on Link-16 now would be a good idea. We may have already done this and not told anyone, but I doubt such a thing would remain secret very long. Obviously AWACS flying in NATO airspace can't see everything in Ukraine, but it can see a lot.
Some new (to me at least) data on how some of the weapons are being utilized by Ukraine. Unfortunately some of the information does not directly address performance. “nearly 90 percent of dropped [Small Diameter Bombs] struck their target.” indicates the weapon is performing well overall. It unfortunately does not directly state that it is resisting the Russian GPS jamming. Of course, they may not actually know. The INS may have just worked well :-).
The statement regarding JDAMs is less powerful and less reassuring. "On the other hand, the effectiveness of the Joint Direct Attack Munition is restricted by the limited quantities of these weapons that are available to Ukraine". Does this mean it is working well now in the presence of jamming or not? Unknown. Ukraine is actively working on their own version. That may be because ours still doesn't work. Hopefully they have enough "dumb" bombs to make the effort worthwhile.
As far as HARMs go: "Golubtsov says that the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile, or HARM, is still used “daily” but that Russian forces have adapted to its presence by turning off their air defense radars and/or changing their operating frequencies." This statement pretty much confirms the missiles are operating in pre-planned mode. Of course, if the radar shuts down it can't shoot you and is out of the fight. The "changing frequency" part is harder to interpret. Depends on exactly what he means. Also depends on which HARMs they have. Radars can change frequencies but only over a limited bandwidth. Lots of radars are pulse-to-pulse agile so they don't have a "frequency" a such. Every pulse is on a different frequency. Many radars also have significant "chirp" inside each pulse. HARMs can deal with all that, especially the newer ones.
It is also clear that Ukraine believes their F-16 force is going to be able to hold Russian air at risk. There are good reasons to believe he is correct. The "crawl, walk, run" discussion is also a bit reassuring. There appears to be a plan of how to exploit their F-16s when they get them. Of course, there is still the question of mass. The recent ALCM missile strikes into Russia says the Ukrainians aren't unreasonably risk averse :-).
Looking at the "kills" painted on the Patriot the number of low-performance drones and cruise missiles is disturbing. Good they were destroyed, bad it required a Patriot to do it. Hopefully the F-16s can clean up those "low slow" targets and leave the Patriots for "fast" targets. There were plenty of those painted on too.
One think the US could (and IMO should) do is make the Link-16 feed from any AWACS in the area available to Ukraine in real time. This will assist the Ukrainian ADS right now and will also assist the F-16s when they arrive. The Ukrainian Saab won't be there for a while, so starting with the crawl phase on Link-16 now would be a good idea. We may have already done this and not told anyone, but I doubt such a thing would remain secret very long. Obviously AWACS flying in NATO airspace can't see everything in Ukraine, but it can see a lot.