[Goose]

Might be a bit premature, but it would be hilarious if the Russia lost a naval war to a country without a navy.

https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1813729015401975958

BC

To be fair, Ukraine had a navy at the start of the war in 2022. It was small and had only one "significant" combatant, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny. She was scuttled by her crew to prevent capture by Russia. In 2014 the Ukrainian navy was significantly larger but it lost all its ships (but the the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny) in the Russian occupation of Crimea. A significant number of officers and men of the Ukrainian navy at that time deserted to the Russian navy. That said, the nucleus of the Ukrainian navy has indeed punched far above its weight. Their use of UAVs and anti-ship missiles has been bold, innovative and successful beyond anything expected. Even more impressively the Ukrainian navy has developed several different classes of USVs that have had great success against Russian surface vessels. They have done this in the middle of a war which is even more impressive.

However, Ukraine has not in any way "won" the naval war. No place in the Black Sea does Ukraine possess "Sea Control". Ukraine grain shipments still have to sail totally inside the territorial waters of NATO nations to protect themselves against Russian attack. Russia OTOH benefits from uncontested commercial shipping operations throughout the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This can easily be confirmed by viewing any one of the many AIS tracking websites. Most importantly multiple military ferries carry both troops and weapons from Russia to the occupied territories in southern Ukraine. The three Kalibr capable Kilos operating out of Novorossiysk launch these missiles into Ukraine with impunity. The total of four operational Kilos can sink anything they want to in the Black Sea. On top of that Russia has absolute air supremacy over the Black Sea. That isn't going to change anytime soon, at least until Ukraine gets an air force again.

Ukraine has attacked Russian naval ships in their Crimean home ports with significant success. Russia has chosen to move their (relatively few) remaining surface naval assets to safer ports rather than attempting to counter the Ukrainian USVs. Given Putin's disdain for the navy and the lack of initiative shown as a result, this relocation of assets makes good sense. It also greatly mitigates the need to defend against cruise missile attacks from Ukraine (Storm Shadows mostly). While it may be politically embarrassing it is likely to "work" at least for a while. The "bottom line" however is that Russia can still operate freely in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. It is not totally "risk free" and abject stupidity can be punished by Ukraine. OTOH Ukraine can in no way operate "freely" in these waters. Ukraine hasn't "won" anything yet. A few nice minefields around Russian ports would be a big step in the right direction though :-).

[Goose]

Might be a bit premature, but it would be hilarious if the Russia lost a naval war to a country without a navy.

https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1813729015401975958

BC

To be fair, Ukraine had a navy at the start of the war in 2022. It was small and had only one "significant" combatant, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny. She was scuttled by her crew to prevent capture by Russia. In 2014 the Ukrainian navy was significantly larger but it lost all its ships (but the the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny) in the Russian occupation of Crimea. A significant number of officers and men of the Ukrainian navy at that time deserted to the Russian navy. That said, the nucleus of the Ukrainian navy has indeed punched far above its weight. Their use of UAVs and anti-ship missiles has been bold, innovative and successful beyond anything expected. Even more impressively the Ukrainian navy has developed several different classes of USVs that have had great success against Russian surface vessels. They have done this in the middle of a war which is even more impressive.

However, Ukraine has not in any way "won" the naval war. No place in the Black Sea does Ukraine possess "Sea Control". Ukraine grain shipments still have to sail totally inside the territorial waters of NATO nations to protect themselves against Russian attack. Russia OTOH benefits from uncontested commercial shipping operations throughout the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This can easily be confirmed by viewing any one of the many AIS tracking websites. Most importantly multiple military ferries carry both troops and weapons from Russia to the occupied territories in southern Ukraine. The three Kalibr capable Kilos operating out of Novorossiysk launch these missiles into Ukraine with impunity. The total of four operational Kilos can sink anything they want to in the Black Sea. On top of that Russia has absolute air supremacy over the Black Sea. That isn't going to change anytime soon, at least until Ukraine gets an air force again.

Ukraine has attacked Russian naval ships in their Crimean home ports with significant success. Russia has chosen to move their (relatively few) remaining surface naval assets to safer ports rather than attempting to counter the Ukrainian USVs. Given Putin's disdain for the navy and the lack of initiative shown as a result, this relocation of assets makes good sense. It also greatly mitigates the need to defend against cruise missile attacks from Ukraine (Storm Shadows mostly). While it may be politically embarrassing it is likely to "work" at least for a while. The "bottom line" however is that Russia can still operate freely in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. It is not totally "risk free" and abject stupidity can be punished by Ukraine. OTOH Ukraine can in no way operate "freely" in these waters. Ukraine hasn't "won" anything yet. A few nice minefields around Russian ports would be a big step in the right direction though :-).