[Goose]

Some may find these two reports from ISW of interest.  The first highlights the increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and Russia's (Putin's) efforts to established more bases of influence in the Americas.  The second report reflects the apparent inability of our diplotmats to have an effective influence in Georgia which now appears to be more in the Russian orbit than ours.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ly-22-2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ly-21-2024

The Caucasus region is a mess.  Geography arguably makes Moldova a better target than Georgia for EU accession, but I don't think Moldova is doing particularly well these days either.  As they say, it's easier to break something than to build something, and Russia excels at breaking things.

At one point in history the vast majority of the Georgian population wanted "out" of the Russian orbit. Like Ukraine, they expected lots of aid from the US that they did not get. Unfortunately for Georgia they were even lower on the totem poll than Ukraine in terms of "importance" for the US. Even worse for Georgia their geography basically precludes relying on overland trade to prosper. They need unfettered access to the Black Sea. When Russia was allowed to invade Georgia in 2008 (from the sea) without any consequences, the message to all Georgians was clear. Nobody cares. Many still do prefer independence, but fewer all the time. Russia is today using Georgia as the "home port" of the remaining surface assets of the Black Sea fleet. Lots of Georgian trade goes through the "Russified" ports of Georgia. Russia can shut down any remaining access to the Black Sea any time it wants. Georgians know this. Russia has also continuously propagandized the part of Georgia they don't presently occupy. The part of Georgia Russia occupies isn't resisting the occupation. Things are "fine" there, more or less. IMO it is inevitable that the rest of Georgia will eventually capitulate. They really have no other choice. The get no help from "the west" and Russia is right there all the time.

Moldova has close cultural ties to Romania. They are poor, but not as poor as Ukraine. If Transnistria wasn't staffed by Russians and simply rejoined Moldova, Moldova would be in pretty good shape. Obviously they will never be a economic powerhouse, but neither is North Macedonia. Moldova has a ways to go before they could be considered for membership, but it is clearly possible. Moldova is also poorer than Georgia, FWIW.

[Goose]

Some may find these two reports from ISW of interest.  The first highlights the increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and Russia's (Putin's) efforts to established more bases of influence in the Americas.  The second report reflects the apparent inability of our diplotmats to have an effective influence in Georgia which now appears to be more in the Russian orbit than ours.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ly-22-2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ly-21-2024

The Caucasus region is a mess.  Geography arguably makes Moldova a better target than Georgia for EU accession, but I don't think Moldova is doing particularly well these days either.  As they say, it's easier to break something than to build something, and Russia excels at breaking things.

At one point in history the vast majority of the Georgian population wanted "out" of the Russian orbit. Like Ukraine, they expected lots of aid from the US that they did not get. Unfortunately for Georgia they were even lower on the totem poll than Ukraine in terms of "importance" for the US. Even worse for Georgia their geography basically precludes relying on overland trade to prosper. They need unfettered access to the Black Sea. When Russia was allowed to invade Georgia in 2008 (from the sea) without any consequences, the message to all Georgians was clear. Nobody cares. Many still do prefer independence, but fewer all the time. Russia is today using Georgia as the "home port" of the remaining surface assets of the Black Sea fleet. Lots of Georgian trade goes through the "Russified" ports of Georgia. Russia can shut down any remaining access to the Black Sea any time it wants. Georgians know this. Russia has also continuously propagandized the part of Georgia they don't presently occupy. The part of Georgia Russia occupies isn't resisting the occupation. Things are "fine" there, more or less. IMO it is inevitable that the rest of Georgia will eventually capitulate. They really have no other choice. The get no help from "the west" and Russia is right there all the time.

Moldova has close cultural ties to Romania. They are poor, but not as poor as Ukraine. If Transnistria wasn't staffed by Russians and simply rejoined Moldova, Moldova would be in pretty good shape. Obviously they will never be a economic powerhouse, but neither is North Macedonia. Moldova has a ways to go before they could be considered for membership, but it is clearly possible. Moldova is also poorer than Georgia, FWIW.