[Goose]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/09/u...resources/

An informed and sober Ukrainian viewpoint.

IMO this is a very good article regarding the Ukrainian offensive itself. It touches all the important points, including the gorilla in the room, "How does this end". However, I do think it goes entirely off the rails with this:

This bold incursion into Kursk Oblast highlights the inconsistency of concerns over escalation. Ukraine has been repeatedly prohibited from using ATACMS and similar systems deep within Russian territory due to fears of escalation. Yet now, with Russia’s territorial integrity under direct threat, we do not see nuclear missiles flying toward Berlin, Brussels, Washington, or any other Western city.

The direct threat to Russia is not coming from ATACMS but rather Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. Attacking a western city won't change that. At some point Russia might conclude that the military assistance the West is providing to Ukraine is "too much". When and if that happens Russia is not going to nuke Berlin or Washington. They are going to nuke someplace in Ukraine. It may be a "legitimate" military target (like a brigade) or it may actually be a civilian target, like Kiev. Russia is quite aware that any nuclear attack on NATO nations will be met with a nuclear response. At the very least they have to be concerned that it would be met with such a response. Ukraine does not have the capability of such a response, and I can pretty much guarantee you the US will not start a nuclear war with Russia over such an event. The question of how to respond is a very difficult one and nobody, including us and Russia, knows where it would lead. Russia's intent would be to make the statement "Alright, enough is enough. Ukraine has to do what we say or else we will keep doing this". Russia has long regarded tactical nuclear weapons as a "statement" action. It says "If you don't want a full fledged nuclear war, stop resisting". Everybody knows this. The authors undoubtedly know this. Their statement is disingenuous IMO.

[Goose]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/09/u...resources/

An informed and sober Ukrainian viewpoint.

IMO this is a very good article regarding the Ukrainian offensive itself. It touches all the important points, including the gorilla in the room, "How does this end". However, I do think it goes entirely off the rails with this:

This bold incursion into Kursk Oblast highlights the inconsistency of concerns over escalation. Ukraine has been repeatedly prohibited from using ATACMS and similar systems deep within Russian territory due to fears of escalation. Yet now, with Russia’s territorial integrity under direct threat, we do not see nuclear missiles flying toward Berlin, Brussels, Washington, or any other Western city.

The direct threat to Russia is not coming from ATACMS but rather Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. Attacking a western city won't change that. At some point Russia might conclude that the military assistance the West is providing to Ukraine is "too much". When and if that happens Russia is not going to nuke Berlin or Washington. They are going to nuke someplace in Ukraine. It may be a "legitimate" military target (like a brigade) or it may actually be a civilian target, like Kiev. Russia is quite aware that any nuclear attack on NATO nations will be met with a nuclear response. At the very least they have to be concerned that it would be met with such a response. Ukraine does not have the capability of such a response, and I can pretty much guarantee you the US will not start a nuclear war with Russia over such an event. The question of how to respond is a very difficult one and nobody, including us and Russia, knows where it would lead. Russia's intent would be to make the statement "Alright, enough is enough. Ukraine has to do what we say or else we will keep doing this". Russia has long regarded tactical nuclear weapons as a "statement" action. It says "If you don't want a full fledged nuclear war, stop resisting". Everybody knows this. The authors undoubtedly know this. Their statement is disingenuous IMO.