[Goose]

Ukraine seems to be expanding and broadening the offensive, with possibly two or three new axes of advance across the border both east and west of the current main axis. Still rumors from Russian telegram channels thus far, no video. 

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/182...7718868028
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1822368582841561225
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1822245964813316469

These locations are along about 100 miles of the border. Obviously unknown how much of this is true and how many Ukrainian units involved, but certainly there's a sense Russian lines may be paper thin.

Even if most of these supposed attacks are merely "demonstrations" it fixes lots of Russian units in position. They can't be withdrawn (or even "thinned out") if there is a probability of Ukraine attacking said position. If Ukraine does find a position that is "thin enough" for them to get through it that just complicates the reinforcement problems for the Russians. The Ukrainians can cut communications and show up once again where they are not "supposed to be". The most important factor is that the Russian troops closest to the Ukrainian breakthrough are those troops guarding the rest of the border and their "mobile reserve" (if any). If Russia can't use these troops to close the existing breach, Russia will HAVE to move troops from elsewhere, probably the Donbas. This is IMO a major goal of the operation. Moving these troops will take significantly longer, thereby allowing Ukraine more time to fortify/improve their positions in the Kursk Oblast and/or penetrate even deeper into Russia.

I'm still skeptical Ukraine can hold this territory, but the wider the penetration the easier the logistics will be, and Russia has only shown the ability to attack by heavily concentrating their infantry and using their glide bombs to repeatedly hammer the defenses for meat assaults. It could take Russia a while to concentrate enough forces to mount a good counter offensive- their ability to counter attack when the lines are unsettled and there is a lot of maneuver has been poor thus far in the war in the limited times that has been the situation.

IMO absolutely right on in both ideas.

Also the large ammo dump at Lipetsk airbase Ukraine recently blew up was reportedly a large stock of FAB glide bombs. Russian precision munitions seem to be used pretty soon after they are produced, so that could be important.

That is true IMO. Even if Russia has other stocks of bombs, they aren't "local". They will either have to operate from other bases further away or wait until they can move enough to Lipetsk. That makes the damage at Lipetsk a "mission kill" and reduces Russian ability to counter-attack.

[Goose]

Ukraine seems to be expanding and broadening the offensive, with possibly two or three new axes of advance across the border both east and west of the current main axis. Still rumors from Russian telegram channels thus far, no video. 

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/182...7718868028
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1822368582841561225
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1822245964813316469

These locations are along about 100 miles of the border. Obviously unknown how much of this is true and how many Ukrainian units involved, but certainly there's a sense Russian lines may be paper thin.

Even if most of these supposed attacks are merely "demonstrations" it fixes lots of Russian units in position. They can't be withdrawn (or even "thinned out") if there is a probability of Ukraine attacking said position. If Ukraine does find a position that is "thin enough" for them to get through it that just complicates the reinforcement problems for the Russians. The Ukrainians can cut communications and show up once again where they are not "supposed to be". The most important factor is that the Russian troops closest to the Ukrainian breakthrough are those troops guarding the rest of the border and their "mobile reserve" (if any). If Russia can't use these troops to close the existing breach, Russia will HAVE to move troops from elsewhere, probably the Donbas. This is IMO a major goal of the operation. Moving these troops will take significantly longer, thereby allowing Ukraine more time to fortify/improve their positions in the Kursk Oblast and/or penetrate even deeper into Russia.

I'm still skeptical Ukraine can hold this territory, but the wider the penetration the easier the logistics will be, and Russia has only shown the ability to attack by heavily concentrating their infantry and using their glide bombs to repeatedly hammer the defenses for meat assaults. It could take Russia a while to concentrate enough forces to mount a good counter offensive- their ability to counter attack when the lines are unsettled and there is a lot of maneuver has been poor thus far in the war in the limited times that has been the situation.

IMO absolutely right on in both ideas.

Also the large ammo dump at Lipetsk airbase Ukraine recently blew up was reportedly a large stock of FAB glide bombs. Russian precision munitions seem to be used pretty soon after they are produced, so that could be important.

That is true IMO. Even if Russia has other stocks of bombs, they aren't "local". They will either have to operate from other bases further away or wait until they can move enough to Lipetsk. That makes the damage at Lipetsk a "mission kill" and reduces Russian ability to counter-attack.