[Goose]

It does seem that with the light of day a lot of the panicked Russian social media chatter was mostly just that.

Indeed that seems to be the case. However the panic involved may produce the desired result of fixing Russian units in place. The local population won't take kindly to being "left defenseless" even if the 3 meter tall Ukrainians are not (yet) attacking them :-).

I think one big difference now with this assault is the involvement of Russian conscript soldiers, who are currently not legally able to be used away from Russian soil. It seems a lot of them seemingly melted on initial contact, which facilitated part of the rapid Ukrainian advance. But this also makes them far more valuable POWs and as a source of internal conflict in Russia; it's one thing for people who signed up for big paychecks to be coming home in boxes or imprisoned. Quite another when they're teenagers who were just doing their national service.

The involvement of conscripts will indeed be a new dynamic. However Russia has a long and "glorious" history of mass conscription resulting in high casualties. For many Russians it is a patriotic imperative and "normal". It is not a "big deal". Of course, it helps if the casualties are mostly not ethnic Russians. We shall see. IMO the bigger effect of this incursion, however it ends, is that the Russian government and military failed to protect Russia from a successful attack. That is going to make people mad and create a "search for the guilty". We already see this happening. Just what the Russian army needs, another shakeup at the top! Unfortunately it can also feed the narrative of "See, I told you. Those Ukrainian Fascists are dangerous and coming for us just like the Germans did!". I expect Putin will try that one.

[Goose]

It does seem that with the light of day a lot of the panicked Russian social media chatter was mostly just that.

Indeed that seems to be the case. However the panic involved may produce the desired result of fixing Russian units in place. The local population won't take kindly to being "left defenseless" even if the 3 meter tall Ukrainians are not (yet) attacking them :-).

I think one big difference now with this assault is the involvement of Russian conscript soldiers, who are currently not legally able to be used away from Russian soil. It seems a lot of them seemingly melted on initial contact, which facilitated part of the rapid Ukrainian advance. But this also makes them far more valuable POWs and as a source of internal conflict in Russia; it's one thing for people who signed up for big paychecks to be coming home in boxes or imprisoned. Quite another when they're teenagers who were just doing their national service.

The involvement of conscripts will indeed be a new dynamic. However Russia has a long and "glorious" history of mass conscription resulting in high casualties. For many Russians it is a patriotic imperative and "normal". It is not a "big deal". Of course, it helps if the casualties are mostly not ethnic Russians. We shall see. IMO the bigger effect of this incursion, however it ends, is that the Russian government and military failed to protect Russia from a successful attack. That is going to make people mad and create a "search for the guilty". We already see this happening. Just what the Russian army needs, another shakeup at the top! Unfortunately it can also feed the narrative of "See, I told you. Those Ukrainian Fascists are dangerous and coming for us just like the Germans did!". I expect Putin will try that one.