[Goose]

Ukraine is a sovereign nation and its people should do what they collectively decide, but I can’t imagine the prospect of becoming another version of Belarus would be that appealing.

BC

It isn't, but it depends on what your options are. If you can't be a "client state" of the west, your only options are to go it alone or join Russia. The latter can look pretty good, especially if you are going to be (or hope to be) one of the "nomenklatura"/"siloviki". Belarus made that choice because the vast, vast majority of their trade was with Russia. They tried going it alone and it became immediately obvious that wasn't viable. Ukraine almost went that way too. It was a near thing.  Russia is Ukarine's most obvious trading partner. If the "rump" Ukraine can't build a trade relationship with the EU that is pretty favorable to Ukraine they may be forced to go hat in hand to Moscow. Keep in mind Ukraine doesn't get back it's ports on the Sea of Azov and Crimea. They also don't get back that part of their railroad network. All they will have is Odessa, which isn't all that great to begin with. On their border they have an economically (if not politically) hostile Hungary and Slovakia. Poland can't absorb all Ukraine's agricultural output, and Romania is dirt poor.  Not a nice situation for a severely damaged country that needs money.

[Goose]

Ukraine is a sovereign nation and its people should do what they collectively decide, but I can’t imagine the prospect of becoming another version of Belarus would be that appealing.

BC

It isn't, but it depends on what your options are. If you can't be a "client state" of the west, your only options are to go it alone or join Russia. The latter can look pretty good, especially if you are going to be (or hope to be) one of the "nomenklatura"/"siloviki". Belarus made that choice because the vast, vast majority of their trade was with Russia. They tried going it alone and it became immediately obvious that wasn't viable. Ukraine almost went that way too. It was a near thing.  Russia is Ukarine's most obvious trading partner. If the "rump" Ukraine can't build a trade relationship with the EU that is pretty favorable to Ukraine they may be forced to go hat in hand to Moscow. Keep in mind Ukraine doesn't get back it's ports on the Sea of Azov and Crimea. They also don't get back that part of their railroad network. All they will have is Odessa, which isn't all that great to begin with. On their border they have an economically (if not politically) hostile Hungary and Slovakia. Poland can't absorb all Ukraine's agricultural output, and Romania is dirt poor.  Not a nice situation for a severely damaged country that needs money.