08-30-2024, 02:01 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-strik...35487.html
Zelenskyy firing the head of the Air Force may have been necessary for reasons entirely outside the loss of the F-16. If so, the timing is unfortunate. It is difficult to believe Ukraine knows for sure what happened at this point unless it is indeed true that a Patriot hit the F-16. One also hopes the firing isn't a knee-jerk reaction.
Before we got additional data my assumption was that the F-16 crashed on landing. That is a good bet if one knows nothing else about the event. However, the F-16 was still out hunting drones. From CNN:
Both cruise missiles and drones can also be shot down with the onboard auto-cannon. If you dive toward the drone you must be very careful to manage your altitude. It is very easy to get yourself in a situation where you will simply hit the ground. Target fixation contributes to the likelihood of making such an error. You need to "boom and zoom". If you miss, come around again. It is a drone. It isn't coming after you. Pilots sometimes err by trying to "fix" a bad initial approach by slowing down too much and fall out of the sky. The other problem is flying through derbies of the drone you just shot down. Shooting down drones with the gun isn't a trivial task, especially for pilots that do not have lots of experience in the jet. However, that is the best way to do it and what Ukraine needs right now.
There are also tons of other things that could have happened. The F-16 could have collided with the drone. At low altitude you don't have much time to recover. Something in the jet may have broken. These are used airplanes that probably didn't get the most comprehensive maintenance near the end of the NATO service. The Ukrainian personnel maintaining them are also very inexperienced. At this point we just don't know.
As far as Ukrainian air defenses e.g. a Patriot shooting down the F-16, that is unfortunately a possibility. I don't know if the F-16s and the Patriots retained their NATO IFF gear. That hardware is not something we want in Russian hands, so maybe it was all removed. Even if it wasn't it is unclear Ukraine would use it. Even if they did, plenty of Ukrainian SAM batteries don't have it. Also, at 200 ft a MANPADS can do the job. They definitely don't have NATO IFF. We do know that early in the war Ukraine decided the only way their air force could operate was by designating certain areas as free-fire zones for SAMS and other areas as aircraft operations areas where the SAMs were absolutely weapons tight. Perhaps the F-16 strayed into a SAM area, or perhaps the recent Russian attack was so intense that all SAM restrictions were lifted.
Running an air force under these conditions isn't easy. Let's hope Ukraine can do so, because without one they are indeed in dire straits.
Zelenskyy firing the head of the Air Force may have been necessary for reasons entirely outside the loss of the F-16. If so, the timing is unfortunate. It is difficult to believe Ukraine knows for sure what happened at this point unless it is indeed true that a Patriot hit the F-16. One also hopes the firing isn't a knee-jerk reaction.
Before we got additional data my assumption was that the F-16 crashed on landing. That is a good bet if one knows nothing else about the event. However, the F-16 was still out hunting drones. From CNN:
Quote:In a statement issued later on Thursday, the Ukrainian Air Force said Moonfish destroyed three cruise missiles and one attack drone on Monday, before he was killed in the crash. The air force said he was posthumously awarded the rank of colonel.The article also says contact with the aircraft was lost as it approached another Russian target. An F-16 can carry six AMRAAMs, although four AMRAAMS and two Sidewinders is a more normal configuration. Both cruise missiles and drones fly relatively low. The F-16 can fly at a slightly higher altitude and shoot cruise missiles down with AMRAAMS. Doing that with drones is frowned upon because the missile is much more expensive than the drone. The drone also isn't a great radar target in many cases and the AMRAAM might not "lock up" on it.
Both cruise missiles and drones can also be shot down with the onboard auto-cannon. If you dive toward the drone you must be very careful to manage your altitude. It is very easy to get yourself in a situation where you will simply hit the ground. Target fixation contributes to the likelihood of making such an error. You need to "boom and zoom". If you miss, come around again. It is a drone. It isn't coming after you. Pilots sometimes err by trying to "fix" a bad initial approach by slowing down too much and fall out of the sky. The other problem is flying through derbies of the drone you just shot down. Shooting down drones with the gun isn't a trivial task, especially for pilots that do not have lots of experience in the jet. However, that is the best way to do it and what Ukraine needs right now.
There are also tons of other things that could have happened. The F-16 could have collided with the drone. At low altitude you don't have much time to recover. Something in the jet may have broken. These are used airplanes that probably didn't get the most comprehensive maintenance near the end of the NATO service. The Ukrainian personnel maintaining them are also very inexperienced. At this point we just don't know.
As far as Ukrainian air defenses e.g. a Patriot shooting down the F-16, that is unfortunately a possibility. I don't know if the F-16s and the Patriots retained their NATO IFF gear. That hardware is not something we want in Russian hands, so maybe it was all removed. Even if it wasn't it is unclear Ukraine would use it. Even if they did, plenty of Ukrainian SAM batteries don't have it. Also, at 200 ft a MANPADS can do the job. They definitely don't have NATO IFF. We do know that early in the war Ukraine decided the only way their air force could operate was by designating certain areas as free-fire zones for SAMS and other areas as aircraft operations areas where the SAMs were absolutely weapons tight. Perhaps the F-16 strayed into a SAM area, or perhaps the recent Russian attack was so intense that all SAM restrictions were lifted.
Running an air force under these conditions isn't easy. Let's hope Ukraine can do so, because without one they are indeed in dire straits.