[Goose]

What is the basis for your assumption that Ukrainian morale will flag eventually? This seems unfounded to me. Ukrainians won't forget the atrocities Russia has brought to areas it has occupied.

No they will not forget. The certainly don't want to surrender to Russia. They have demonstrated that. However, if the way ahead involves Ukraine losing the war and being taken over by Russia anyway there is no reason to keep fighting. You are just postponing the inevitable. Instead you need to save yourself and your family, either by fleeing as refugees or making the best deal you can with the devil. There is no third choice. Once the rank and file lose confidence in the ability to win they will make those choices. If there is no plausible path to victory the rank and file will lose that confidence.

The Ukrainian government has stressed the goal of recapturing all Ukrainian territory partly for morale purposes. A big contributing factor to the incursion into Russia was to demonstrate to the Ukrainian public and to the "West" that Ukraine was not a spent force. The idea of victory motivates people. Once the government starts talking about what they will be willing to give up to end the war it becomes harder for the soldiers and the general public to justify in their own minds being willing to suffer and die fighting for lands that will be surrendered anyway. Things go downhill from there.

Dictatorships can often fight on when victory is viewed by the public as impossible because they let everybody know that if you don't fight on they will kill you themselves immediately. Democracies can't do that. Once the public decides the war is lost, it is.

[Goose]

What is the basis for your assumption that Ukrainian morale will flag eventually? This seems unfounded to me. Ukrainians won't forget the atrocities Russia has brought to areas it has occupied.

No they will not forget. The certainly don't want to surrender to Russia. They have demonstrated that. However, if the way ahead involves Ukraine losing the war and being taken over by Russia anyway there is no reason to keep fighting. You are just postponing the inevitable. Instead you need to save yourself and your family, either by fleeing as refugees or making the best deal you can with the devil. There is no third choice. Once the rank and file lose confidence in the ability to win they will make those choices. If there is no plausible path to victory the rank and file will lose that confidence.

The Ukrainian government has stressed the goal of recapturing all Ukrainian territory partly for morale purposes. A big contributing factor to the incursion into Russia was to demonstrate to the Ukrainian public and to the "West" that Ukraine was not a spent force. The idea of victory motivates people. Once the government starts talking about what they will be willing to give up to end the war it becomes harder for the soldiers and the general public to justify in their own minds being willing to suffer and die fighting for lands that will be surrendered anyway. Things go downhill from there.

Dictatorships can often fight on when victory is viewed by the public as impossible because they let everybody know that if you don't fight on they will kill you themselves immediately. Democracies can't do that. Once the public decides the war is lost, it is.