[Goose]

another article on Russian drive for more personnel.   Should be free.  

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-incr...be94f95b1a

And another https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-embarki...09444.html

The analysis that Russia will take 12 months to "train" the new soldiers is contraindicated by the plentiful reports that Russia is sending vast quantities of troops to the front line with little or no training. For "meat attacks" no training is needed. As for the affect on the Russian labor force, from the link I posted

Artem Kochev, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, told BI that Russia's labor market would be less affected if military recruitment is done in a targeted fashion.
"Currently, new recruits can be split into two groups: indebted people with low socio-economic status, and prison convicts," Kochev said. "They either participate in the less productive branches of the economy or are not part of the labor market at all."

The above mentioned two groups are also the ones the society is willing to dispense with. Obviously there will be "issues" with lack of equipment , lack of uniforms etc. However, it must be remembered that back in the battle for Avdiivka Russian troops were sent to die carrying only shovels. This isn't a "new" phenomena.

Can Russia source enough troops from the "desired" classes? Probably. However, many of them will die quickly. At some point Putin will run out of such "soldiers". Russia is already taking African migrants and "volunteers" from Cuba (and elsewhere). The question is "Can Russia overwhelm Ukraine by sheer numbers before Russia runs out of troops?". The answer is not obvious. Ukraine's morale will be a big component of the answer, and that is hard to estimate.

IMO it is prudent (actually necessary) to assume Russia can keep generating cannon fodder indefinitely.  It may not be true, but since we really can't estimate when it will no longer be so we must assume the worst. A plan to defeat this incompetent, inefficient, but immense army is necessary. Let's see what Zelenskyy proposes. It may lack detail in some areas due to security considerations, but it might be a "way ahead".

[Goose]

another article on Russian drive for more personnel.   Should be free.  

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-incr...be94f95b1a

And another https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-embarki...09444.html

The analysis that Russia will take 12 months to "train" the new soldiers is contraindicated by the plentiful reports that Russia is sending vast quantities of troops to the front line with little or no training. For "meat attacks" no training is needed. As for the affect on the Russian labor force, from the link I posted

Artem Kochev, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, told BI that Russia's labor market would be less affected if military recruitment is done in a targeted fashion.
"Currently, new recruits can be split into two groups: indebted people with low socio-economic status, and prison convicts," Kochev said. "They either participate in the less productive branches of the economy or are not part of the labor market at all."

The above mentioned two groups are also the ones the society is willing to dispense with. Obviously there will be "issues" with lack of equipment , lack of uniforms etc. However, it must be remembered that back in the battle for Avdiivka Russian troops were sent to die carrying only shovels. This isn't a "new" phenomena.

Can Russia source enough troops from the "desired" classes? Probably. However, many of them will die quickly. At some point Putin will run out of such "soldiers". Russia is already taking African migrants and "volunteers" from Cuba (and elsewhere). The question is "Can Russia overwhelm Ukraine by sheer numbers before Russia runs out of troops?". The answer is not obvious. Ukraine's morale will be a big component of the answer, and that is hard to estimate.

IMO it is prudent (actually necessary) to assume Russia can keep generating cannon fodder indefinitely.  It may not be true, but since we really can't estimate when it will no longer be so we must assume the worst. A plan to defeat this incompetent, inefficient, but immense army is necessary. Let's see what Zelenskyy proposes. It may lack detail in some areas due to security considerations, but it might be a "way ahead".