[Goose]

Well, they can do more than one a month since they just hit three depots in two days, and there is an ongoing strike in Crimea now.

All good, but again possibly they can't do it again for four months :-). Seriously, while that is great news, I am pretty sure Ukraine wouldn't be pushing for permission to use Storm Shadows etc inside Russia if they felt their own indigenous capabilities were fully adequate.

Also it seems the depot at Tikhoretsk, which is more for short term storage as compared to the two GRAU arsenals hit in Tver region, had adjacent railway and airport infrastructure that was also destroyed. This was a depot that a lot of North Korean ammo was coming through.

Indeed good news and something that will contribute meaningfully to the Ukraine's success in both the short term and probably in the long term.

Russia will certainly respond by decentralizing, but that will take time and will be much less efficient, and it will take a long time to replenish what was lost in these strikes.

IMO you are correct about your first and last points. It will take time to re-design the logistics system and replenishing what was destroyed will also take time, perhaps significant time. However, it is emphatically not true that the redesigned decentralized logistics systems will inevitably be less efficient. There is ever potential for them to be significantly more efficient and more responsive to front line needs. The very hierarchical top-heavy system Russia uses at present isn't at all efficient. There is massive waste and undoubtedly fraud going on. Rethinking it could result in vast improvement. Of course, it could be argued that Russia is incapable of doing better. That may be true, but I wouldn't count on it.

Making Russia transport and distribute smaller batches of ammunition will require even more distributed air defenses to (try to) protect it, will require them to devote more manpower and transport equipment to logistics. That's not Russia becoming a better fighting force IMHO.

Devoting more manpower and transport equipment to logistics will indeed make them a better fighting force. Right now, logistics is one of Russia's key weaknesses. One reason they cannot exploit success is that they can't supply the troops that made the breakthrough. Forcing them to remedy this deficiency would unquestionably make them a better fighting force. It can be argued they can't do this, but given that casualties in the logistics "tail" aren't high it might be possible to staff this effort with "new" ethnic Russian recruits much easier than other demands Russia make of its people.

If Russia does indeed attempt to "defend" all its "important" points using point defense systems surrounding these targets, you will be correct. Russia will 1) undoubtedly fail, and 2) weaken their ability to defend against a resurgent Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) if indeed one comes forward. However, if Russia finally demands the VKS get its act together and establish an adequate 24/7 barrier air patrol around Ukraine then none of these ill effects will ensue. It will also put the hurt to Ukraine using air-breathing weapons very deep into Russia. Russia has the aircraft and pilots to do this, at least on paper. It is a mystery to me why it has taken this long for this to at least be attempted. There may be issues with Russian aircraft maintenance that might preclude it. There could be other reasons I am not aware of. However, I am sure that at least some Russians realize that is the "right answer" and it should be attempted. We have seen what can be done by such a system against Iranian drone strikes. Russia can do the same. Increased drone attacks from Ukraine should force them to at least try.

[Goose]

Well, they can do more than one a month since they just hit three depots in two days, and there is an ongoing strike in Crimea now.

All good, but again possibly they can't do it again for four months :-). Seriously, while that is great news, I am pretty sure Ukraine wouldn't be pushing for permission to use Storm Shadows etc inside Russia if they felt their own indigenous capabilities were fully adequate.

Also it seems the depot at Tikhoretsk, which is more for short term storage as compared to the two GRAU arsenals hit in Tver region, had adjacent railway and airport infrastructure that was also destroyed. This was a depot that a lot of North Korean ammo was coming through.

Indeed good news and something that will contribute meaningfully to the Ukraine's success in both the short term and probably in the long term.

Russia will certainly respond by decentralizing, but that will take time and will be much less efficient, and it will take a long time to replenish what was lost in these strikes.

IMO you are correct about your first and last points. It will take time to re-design the logistics system and replenishing what was destroyed will also take time, perhaps significant time. However, it is emphatically not true that the redesigned decentralized logistics systems will inevitably be less efficient. There is ever potential for them to be significantly more efficient and more responsive to front line needs. The very hierarchical top-heavy system Russia uses at present isn't at all efficient. There is massive waste and undoubtedly fraud going on. Rethinking it could result in vast improvement. Of course, it could be argued that Russia is incapable of doing better. That may be true, but I wouldn't count on it.

Making Russia transport and distribute smaller batches of ammunition will require even more distributed air defenses to (try to) protect it, will require them to devote more manpower and transport equipment to logistics. That's not Russia becoming a better fighting force IMHO.

Devoting more manpower and transport equipment to logistics will indeed make them a better fighting force. Right now, logistics is one of Russia's key weaknesses. One reason they cannot exploit success is that they can't supply the troops that made the breakthrough. Forcing them to remedy this deficiency would unquestionably make them a better fighting force. It can be argued they can't do this, but given that casualties in the logistics "tail" aren't high it might be possible to staff this effort with "new" ethnic Russian recruits much easier than other demands Russia make of its people.

If Russia does indeed attempt to "defend" all its "important" points using point defense systems surrounding these targets, you will be correct. Russia will 1) undoubtedly fail, and 2) weaken their ability to defend against a resurgent Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) if indeed one comes forward. However, if Russia finally demands the VKS get its act together and establish an adequate 24/7 barrier air patrol around Ukraine then none of these ill effects will ensue. It will also put the hurt to Ukraine using air-breathing weapons very deep into Russia. Russia has the aircraft and pilots to do this, at least on paper. It is a mystery to me why it has taken this long for this to at least be attempted. There may be issues with Russian aircraft maintenance that might preclude it. There could be other reasons I am not aware of. However, I am sure that at least some Russians realize that is the "right answer" and it should be attempted. We have seen what can be done by such a system against Iranian drone strikes. Russia can do the same. Increased drone attacks from Ukraine should force them to at least try.