[Goose]

Satellite imagery from recently attacked Russian ammunition depots. Seems like Ukraine hit depots when trains were there.

With good intelligence/pattern analysis, they seemingly are able to hit "time sensitive" targets with slow moving drones.

Not subscribing to X, I only get to see the single tweet, with 4 images from the first depot.
For anyone else in the same boat, here's the 10 tweets with images
  https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/18382...05010.html

It looks like Ukraine played a serious game of Battleship.  Look at the (black) holes in the unexploded bunkers at the southeast end of the Toropets depot versus the before image (for better resolution, see Google maps).
Miss ....
  Miss .....
     Miss ......
       Ka-boom!  Ka-boom!  Ka-boom!
One wonders if any attacks struck their intended target after the big boom.  I would guess they used time-delay fuses.

Rather than strikes, those dark areas could be collapsed roof segments of the bunkers.

The first set of pictures (image 4) appears to show a secondary explosion centered on the rail track.  No sign of a train car.
The Toropets pictures show a train apparently damaged from a bunker explosion.

Trains are going to take time to be loaded or unloaded and are pretty stationary during that process.  I presume these attacks also were intended to take out the equipment for loading/unloading the ammo.  Drones can alter their course or stay on location to time an attack when a train arrives.  I'm not sure how good a drone would do to take out a moving train with ammo on board.  But, an attack on an ammo train would be best to stage on a bridge.

Agree. Ukraine does undoubtedly have pretty good HUMINT surrounding lots of Russian activities. They also get access to a lot of US intelligence gathered by many means. All that said, unloading a train full of explosives takes a while. I am going to guess that 24 hours would be considered rapid. That hardly makes the train an "ephemeral" target. The distance from Kiev to Toropets is well less than 600 miles. A very slow drone would get there in under 6 hours. A fighter aircraft could do it in well under 2 hours. It is also pretty likely that a facility of that size receives and dispatches several trains a week filled with things that explode. Pretty likely at any give time one or more would be there.

[Goose]

Satellite imagery from recently attacked Russian ammunition depots. Seems like Ukraine hit depots when trains were there.

With good intelligence/pattern analysis, they seemingly are able to hit "time sensitive" targets with slow moving drones.

Not subscribing to X, I only get to see the single tweet, with 4 images from the first depot.
For anyone else in the same boat, here's the 10 tweets with images
  https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/18382...05010.html

It looks like Ukraine played a serious game of Battleship.  Look at the (black) holes in the unexploded bunkers at the southeast end of the Toropets depot versus the before image (for better resolution, see Google maps).
Miss ....
  Miss .....
     Miss ......
       Ka-boom!  Ka-boom!  Ka-boom!
One wonders if any attacks struck their intended target after the big boom.  I would guess they used time-delay fuses.

Rather than strikes, those dark areas could be collapsed roof segments of the bunkers.

The first set of pictures (image 4) appears to show a secondary explosion centered on the rail track.  No sign of a train car.
The Toropets pictures show a train apparently damaged from a bunker explosion.

Trains are going to take time to be loaded or unloaded and are pretty stationary during that process.  I presume these attacks also were intended to take out the equipment for loading/unloading the ammo.  Drones can alter their course or stay on location to time an attack when a train arrives.  I'm not sure how good a drone would do to take out a moving train with ammo on board.  But, an attack on an ammo train would be best to stage on a bridge.

Agree. Ukraine does undoubtedly have pretty good HUMINT surrounding lots of Russian activities. They also get access to a lot of US intelligence gathered by many means. All that said, unloading a train full of explosives takes a while. I am going to guess that 24 hours would be considered rapid. That hardly makes the train an "ephemeral" target. The distance from Kiev to Toropets is well less than 600 miles. A very slow drone would get there in under 6 hours. A fighter aircraft could do it in well under 2 hours. It is also pretty likely that a facility of that size receives and dispatches several trains a week filled with things that explode. Pretty likely at any give time one or more would be there.