[Mick]

Some thoughts re: dollars for next year, assuming Snell ops out and Ray does not…

Pitching:

Ray 25.0 (under contract)
Ta. Rogers 12.0 (under contract)
Webb 12.0 (under contract)
Hicks 12.5. (under contract)
Ty. Rogers (arb eligible - 6.5 est.)
Austin (arg eligible - 1.5 est.)
Doval (arb eligible - 5.0 est.)
Beck 0.8
Walker 0.8
Harrison 0.8 
Hjelle 0.8
Winn 0.8
Miller 0.8
Birdsong 0.8

Note:  Minimum salary is 0.76.  I rounded to 0.8 to account for several players who will receive more than the minimum.  

Total - $79.3 million 

Non-pitching:

Chapman 25.0 (under contract)
Lee 17.25 (under contract)
Flores 3.5 (under contract)
Murphy 4.0 (under contract)
Yastrzemski (arb eligible - 10.0 est)
Wade (arb eligible - 7.0 est)
Bailey 0.8
Fitzgerald 0.8
Encarnacion 0.8
Luciano 0.8
Matos 0.8
McCray 0.8
Ramos 0.8

Total - $73.35 million 

Grand total $152.65 million

Add: a high dollar SP ($25), one or two veteran RPs ($6-$12), a high dollar infielder ($20) and a reserve catcher ($5).  

Summary:  I think we see a payroll of $200 million+.  Add to that benefits, bonuses and misc. charges and I believe SF will be just below the $241 threshold (perhaps in the low $230’s).

Projected salaries for key contributors:

Tyler Rogers, $5.5 million. Better season in 2024 than 2023, 2.82 ERA, walked six batters in 70+ innings, most appearances in NL for the third time in his six year career.
Late Night LaMonte Wade Jr., $4.7 million. 20% better than league average last season, 19% better than league average this season, .380 OBP. Maybe a L/R platoon with Wilmer Flores, if Flores can recover physically. Wade is 31, injury-prone. Bryce Eldridge is around the corner.
Mike Yastrzemski, $9.5 million. Classic fourth outfielder, 4.7 WAR, 47th among outfielders over past three years. Giants H/R leader since 2019.
Camilo Doval, $4.6 million, I kid you not. Ranked #18 reliever on Saves+Holds (was #10 last year). All-Star in 2023, 39 saves. Listed as #62 most valuable player in MLB coming into 2024 season.

Projected salaries for the four arbitration-eligible Giants (msn.com)

Chapman was #2 in NL overall WAR at 7.1, behind Ohtani (9.2).
Webb was 10th in pitcher WAR and ERA, 7th in wins, #1 in innings pitched. 2nd lowest HRs per nine innings.
Rogers and Walker were #1 and #2 in NL appearances, Stanford's Miller was #6. Talk about bullpen overuse.
Doval was still sixth in NL in saves (23).
Bailey, 2nd most caught stealing, 2nd most double plays as catcher, 2nd most passed balls, 5th most putouts.
Chapman, 3rd most assists, most errors, most double plays in NL, most total zone runs.
Yaz, 2nd most games and errors in RF, 4th most putouts and assist, 5th best range and fielding %
Hicks, 3rd most putouts as pitcher.
Wade, 3rd best range at 1B
Estrada 4th best range at 2B

---

New update.  Posey and the Giants will hire a new GM

No surprise there.  I like what Posey said about bringing in a person with a scouting background.  My first thought was about Brian Sabean and what he brought to the role.  

By the way, an aside to Lex that I think will make him happy…

After the press conference, Alex Pavlovic had a 1:1 interview with Greg Johnson. What asked about what he wanted to see re: the Giants identity, Johnson said he wanted to move away from 1+1 contracts.  He feels they are detrimental to building a cohesiveness in the clubhouse.  In essence, those contracts create a “hired gun” approach in which a player knows he won’t be part of the team after one year if he produces.  Thus, he doesn’t buy into the team’s ethos.  

I think both Johnson and Posey are focused on creating a team that wins AND one that fans can identify with.  One of Zaidi’s biggest failures was his lack of understanding of how the team connects to the fan base.  That certainly won’t be a problem for Posey.

Read that Posey considers it a priority to bring back Blake Snell. Hope that's true, I'd rather see him as a Giant than a Dodger.

[Mick]

Some thoughts re: dollars for next year, assuming Snell ops out and Ray does not…

Pitching:

Ray 25.0 (under contract)
Ta. Rogers 12.0 (under contract)
Webb 12.0 (under contract)
Hicks 12.5. (under contract)
Ty. Rogers (arb eligible - 6.5 est.)
Austin (arg eligible - 1.5 est.)
Doval (arb eligible - 5.0 est.)
Beck 0.8
Walker 0.8
Harrison 0.8 
Hjelle 0.8
Winn 0.8
Miller 0.8
Birdsong 0.8

Note:  Minimum salary is 0.76.  I rounded to 0.8 to account for several players who will receive more than the minimum.  

Total - $79.3 million 

Non-pitching:

Chapman 25.0 (under contract)
Lee 17.25 (under contract)
Flores 3.5 (under contract)
Murphy 4.0 (under contract)
Yastrzemski (arb eligible - 10.0 est)
Wade (arb eligible - 7.0 est)
Bailey 0.8
Fitzgerald 0.8
Encarnacion 0.8
Luciano 0.8
Matos 0.8
McCray 0.8
Ramos 0.8

Total - $73.35 million 

Grand total $152.65 million

Add: a high dollar SP ($25), one or two veteran RPs ($6-$12), a high dollar infielder ($20) and a reserve catcher ($5).  

Summary:  I think we see a payroll of $200 million+.  Add to that benefits, bonuses and misc. charges and I believe SF will be just below the $241 threshold (perhaps in the low $230’s).

Projected salaries for key contributors:

Tyler Rogers, $5.5 million. Better season in 2024 than 2023, 2.82 ERA, walked six batters in 70+ innings, most appearances in NL for the third time in his six year career.
Late Night LaMonte Wade Jr., $4.7 million. 20% better than league average last season, 19% better than league average this season, .380 OBP. Maybe a L/R platoon with Wilmer Flores, if Flores can recover physically. Wade is 31, injury-prone. Bryce Eldridge is around the corner.
Mike Yastrzemski, $9.5 million. Classic fourth outfielder, 4.7 WAR, 47th among outfielders over past three years. Giants H/R leader since 2019.
Camilo Doval, $4.6 million, I kid you not. Ranked #18 reliever on Saves+Holds (was #10 last year). All-Star in 2023, 39 saves. Listed as #62 most valuable player in MLB coming into 2024 season.

Projected salaries for the four arbitration-eligible Giants (msn.com)

Chapman was #2 in NL overall WAR at 7.1, behind Ohtani (9.2).
Webb was 10th in pitcher WAR and ERA, 7th in wins, #1 in innings pitched. 2nd lowest HRs per nine innings.
Rogers and Walker were #1 and #2 in NL appearances, Stanford's Miller was #6. Talk about bullpen overuse.
Doval was still sixth in NL in saves (23).
Bailey, 2nd most caught stealing, 2nd most double plays as catcher, 2nd most passed balls, 5th most putouts.
Chapman, 3rd most assists, most errors, most double plays in NL, most total zone runs.
Yaz, 2nd most games and errors in RF, 4th most putouts and assist, 5th best range and fielding %
Hicks, 3rd most putouts as pitcher.
Wade, 3rd best range at 1B
Estrada 4th best range at 2B

---

New update.  Posey and the Giants will hire a new GM

No surprise there.  I like what Posey said about bringing in a person with a scouting background.  My first thought was about Brian Sabean and what he brought to the role.  

By the way, an aside to Lex that I think will make him happy…

After the press conference, Alex Pavlovic had a 1:1 interview with Greg Johnson. What asked about what he wanted to see re: the Giants identity, Johnson said he wanted to move away from 1+1 contracts.  He feels they are detrimental to building a cohesiveness in the clubhouse.  In essence, those contracts create a “hired gun” approach in which a player knows he won’t be part of the team after one year if he produces.  Thus, he doesn’t buy into the team’s ethos.  

I think both Johnson and Posey are focused on creating a team that wins AND one that fans can identify with.  One of Zaidi’s biggest failures was his lack of understanding of how the team connects to the fan base.  That certainly won’t be a problem for Posey.

Read that Posey considers it a priority to bring back Blake Snell. Hope that's true, I'd rather see him as a Giant than a Dodger.