[GK3]

The Duke game is a harbinger of how we will (not) be able to compete against the very top teams going forward. Duke has 6 transfers on its roster; against us, 5 of them started and played at least 2/3 of the game, most of them 80 or 90 minutes. Duke's roster page even helpfully has a separate column for "Previous School." North Carolina has 5 transfers; 2 started against Cal yesterday. Florida State has at least 7 transfers and several international players. We have zero transfers on our roster. How are we going to win even a conference championship against that?

I think that's an overly pessimistic take. With our young team we beat USC, which is currently at the top of the Big 10 standings, and whose star senior midfielder Maria Alagoa is a Portuguese national who was picked up as a transfer this season.  We are also ahead of Florida State in the ACC standings. And of course we just beat North Carolina (which I know hadn't happened when you made your post).  

I don't consider the 4 goals allowed vs Duke as evidence that we are suddenly a bad team.  Duke took advantage of our defensive weakness due to Emri's injury. The safe approach would have been to move Aikey back to center back. Ratcliff took a gamble by playing her up and it failed.  So be it.  Today's game showed we have the talent to stop a top offense if we need to.  And it's big that Harvey scored both goals this week.  She was a major goal scorer in high school but Ratcliff had been playing her mostly at defensive mid since the beginning of her freshman year last season.  I think we learned this week that she can give us a needed boost on offense when Aikey is moved to center back.  Makes me feel very confident going forward.

I was hoping for at least 2 points this week (which would have been 2 ties). So I'm thrilled with picking up 3 points with a straight out win.  I think there is more than a 50% chance we can win our remaining 3 games, which very likely puts us in the top 4 and gives us a home game for the 1st round of the ACC tournament. Big road games coming up against Louisville and Notre Dame.  Fingers crossed!

I am putting Duke down as an aberration; however I am somewhat less optimistic overall. They badly needed that win against NC and gutted it out which is great. But:

- the defense was much better obviously but it’s not seamless. Harrison started rough but cleaned the defensive side up. Boamah let the ref and Thomas throw her off (I hope there was no injury on the face smack she took from Thomas) and Pagador needed a lot of help to hang on. Interior coverage though was excellent.
- NC is a thin team and appeared to wear out the last 20-30 minutes which can’t be expected every game.
- the offense didn’t suddenly show up, though I agree Harvey looked more comfortable today at RM and every bit of scoring helps.
- no Montoya. Injury? Something else? And Thomas got hurt and didn’t come back. It is getting desperate for bodies at forward.

Fundamentally though, it takes a lot of luck to win 6 games against 4 or 5 good teams this way. A bad ref, a bad bounce, PK’s. Whatever. With this little margin, something probably trips them up before the College Cup. 

There is still time and again extra ACC tournament games might really help, but having to play Aikey at CB probably puts a ceiling on this team. To be clear though I do think it’s the right move, and it does maintain a high floor.

The other thing people have to realize what has handicapped Stanford is the explosion of the NWSL and women's professional soccer in general. We lost Alyssa Thompson and Onyeka Gamero to the pros, and they were supposed to be the forwards of our future. And of course, we also lost Giselle Thompson, Alyssa's sister, to the pros as well. She would have helped on defense (though probably not at center back).

I think the underlying issue here is can we stay consistently in the running for a NCAA title in today's world. Your best recruits may turn pro, others may decide the grass is greener at Duke, Va, NC, ND or Wake.  None of those schools are chopped liver.  If we won't/can't play the portal game, over the long haul it will be much harder to reach the top.

[GK3]

The Duke game is a harbinger of how we will (not) be able to compete against the very top teams going forward. Duke has 6 transfers on its roster; against us, 5 of them started and played at least 2/3 of the game, most of them 80 or 90 minutes. Duke's roster page even helpfully has a separate column for "Previous School." North Carolina has 5 transfers; 2 started against Cal yesterday. Florida State has at least 7 transfers and several international players. We have zero transfers on our roster. How are we going to win even a conference championship against that?

I think that's an overly pessimistic take. With our young team we beat USC, which is currently at the top of the Big 10 standings, and whose star senior midfielder Maria Alagoa is a Portuguese national who was picked up as a transfer this season.  We are also ahead of Florida State in the ACC standings. And of course we just beat North Carolina (which I know hadn't happened when you made your post).  

I don't consider the 4 goals allowed vs Duke as evidence that we are suddenly a bad team.  Duke took advantage of our defensive weakness due to Emri's injury. The safe approach would have been to move Aikey back to center back. Ratcliff took a gamble by playing her up and it failed.  So be it.  Today's game showed we have the talent to stop a top offense if we need to.  And it's big that Harvey scored both goals this week.  She was a major goal scorer in high school but Ratcliff had been playing her mostly at defensive mid since the beginning of her freshman year last season.  I think we learned this week that she can give us a needed boost on offense when Aikey is moved to center back.  Makes me feel very confident going forward.

I was hoping for at least 2 points this week (which would have been 2 ties). So I'm thrilled with picking up 3 points with a straight out win.  I think there is more than a 50% chance we can win our remaining 3 games, which very likely puts us in the top 4 and gives us a home game for the 1st round of the ACC tournament. Big road games coming up against Louisville and Notre Dame.  Fingers crossed!

I am putting Duke down as an aberration; however I am somewhat less optimistic overall. They badly needed that win against NC and gutted it out which is great. But:

- the defense was much better obviously but it’s not seamless. Harrison started rough but cleaned the defensive side up. Boamah let the ref and Thomas throw her off (I hope there was no injury on the face smack she took from Thomas) and Pagador needed a lot of help to hang on. Interior coverage though was excellent.
- NC is a thin team and appeared to wear out the last 20-30 minutes which can’t be expected every game.
- the offense didn’t suddenly show up, though I agree Harvey looked more comfortable today at RM and every bit of scoring helps.
- no Montoya. Injury? Something else? And Thomas got hurt and didn’t come back. It is getting desperate for bodies at forward.

Fundamentally though, it takes a lot of luck to win 6 games against 4 or 5 good teams this way. A bad ref, a bad bounce, PK’s. Whatever. With this little margin, something probably trips them up before the College Cup. 

There is still time and again extra ACC tournament games might really help, but having to play Aikey at CB probably puts a ceiling on this team. To be clear though I do think it’s the right move, and it does maintain a high floor.

The other thing people have to realize what has handicapped Stanford is the explosion of the NWSL and women's professional soccer in general. We lost Alyssa Thompson and Onyeka Gamero to the pros, and they were supposed to be the forwards of our future. And of course, we also lost Giselle Thompson, Alyssa's sister, to the pros as well. She would have helped on defense (though probably not at center back).

I think the underlying issue here is can we stay consistently in the running for a NCAA title in today's world. Your best recruits may turn pro, others may decide the grass is greener at Duke, Va, NC, ND or Wake.  None of those schools are chopped liver.  If we won't/can't play the portal game, over the long haul it will be much harder to reach the top.