Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone. Don't need to be CIA to see that they are running out of vehicles. The fact that Russian offensives are using less vehicles than previously also fits with the fact they are running out of vehicles. The exact date they run out is contingent on how poorly preserved and cannibalized their stocks are, the rate at which they can refurbish them, and how they use them, which can't be easily determined from satellite imagery. But what is certain is their supply of Soviet vehicles is limited, the depots are significantly depleted as compared to the start of the conflict, and their production of new tanks and IFVs is very low.
https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots
Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.
https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots
Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.