[Goose]

Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone. Don't need to be CIA to see that they are running out of vehicles. The fact that Russian offensives are using less vehicles than previously also fits with the fact they are running out of vehicles. The exact date they run out is contingent on how poorly preserved and cannibalized their stocks are, the rate at which they can refurbish them, and how they use them, which can't be easily determined from satellite imagery. But what is certain is their supply of Soviet vehicles is limited, the depots are significantly depleted as compared to the start of the conflict, and their production of new tanks and IFVs is very low.

https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots

I certainly agree their resources are not limitless, and that their depots are significantly depleted. However, as I am sure you are aware many of these depots have covered (buildings or "tents") storage that contains an unknown number of vehicles in unknown condition. One would think these storage areas contained the "best" vehicles and they got used first, but who knows? Russia might have done it in the opposite order because they knew the vehicles stored in the open are in worse shape and could be easily counted.  It must also be said that Russia is a very big place and there are undoubtedly lots of "smaller" storage areas scattered all over Siberia and central Russia. It is really hard to know what their resources actually are. 

The fact Russia is using fewer IFVs and tanks in their operations also fits with the idea they have become more proficient (and smarter) in their use and therefore actually needs fewer such vehicles. Given how poorly these vehicles performed and how many were needlessly destroyed improvement wouldn't be difficult :-). If and when we see Russian attacks failing for lack of such resources it will indeed indicate shortages. Until that happens the "improvement" explanation is IMO much more probable.

Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? 

I think it is almost certain. They supposedly have the capacity to more than double their production in time of war. If so, they can meet their own needs and send 3 million shells to Russia forever. Supposedly the limiting factor is not industrial capacity but access to raw materials. Russia can probably help there. The trains going back to North Korea can be filled with scrap metal etc. to make more shells. Capitalism is also a great motivator. This desperately poor country is getting paid (either in cash or in kind) for what the are delivering. They WANT to be a good supplier to Russia and are highly motivated. It is amazing what level of effort that can extract.

There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. 

I absolutely believe it. Russian ordinance does the same, but probably less often. I don't think that bothers Russia much at all. "Quantity has a quality all its own".

North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.

Sure they will. They are replacing the old shells with new ones, which they do periodically anyway. According to South Korea two million a year on a one-shift peacetime schedule. If they get the raw materials and run three shifts (which they supposedly are now doing) making another three million a year (if not more) is entirely possible. They are also repurposing a mortar ammunition factory near their norther border to make 152 mm shells. Supply and demand in action! Maybe malnutrition can be reduced.

[Goose]

Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone. Don't need to be CIA to see that they are running out of vehicles. The fact that Russian offensives are using less vehicles than previously also fits with the fact they are running out of vehicles. The exact date they run out is contingent on how poorly preserved and cannibalized their stocks are, the rate at which they can refurbish them, and how they use them, which can't be easily determined from satellite imagery. But what is certain is their supply of Soviet vehicles is limited, the depots are significantly depleted as compared to the start of the conflict, and their production of new tanks and IFVs is very low.

https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots

I certainly agree their resources are not limitless, and that their depots are significantly depleted. However, as I am sure you are aware many of these depots have covered (buildings or "tents") storage that contains an unknown number of vehicles in unknown condition. One would think these storage areas contained the "best" vehicles and they got used first, but who knows? Russia might have done it in the opposite order because they knew the vehicles stored in the open are in worse shape and could be easily counted.  It must also be said that Russia is a very big place and there are undoubtedly lots of "smaller" storage areas scattered all over Siberia and central Russia. It is really hard to know what their resources actually are. 

The fact Russia is using fewer IFVs and tanks in their operations also fits with the idea they have become more proficient (and smarter) in their use and therefore actually needs fewer such vehicles. Given how poorly these vehicles performed and how many were needlessly destroyed improvement wouldn't be difficult :-). If and when we see Russian attacks failing for lack of such resources it will indeed indicate shortages. Until that happens the "improvement" explanation is IMO much more probable.

Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? 

I think it is almost certain. They supposedly have the capacity to more than double their production in time of war. If so, they can meet their own needs and send 3 million shells to Russia forever. Supposedly the limiting factor is not industrial capacity but access to raw materials. Russia can probably help there. The trains going back to North Korea can be filled with scrap metal etc. to make more shells. Capitalism is also a great motivator. This desperately poor country is getting paid (either in cash or in kind) for what the are delivering. They WANT to be a good supplier to Russia and are highly motivated. It is amazing what level of effort that can extract.

There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. 

I absolutely believe it. Russian ordinance does the same, but probably less often. I don't think that bothers Russia much at all. "Quantity has a quality all its own".

North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.

Sure they will. They are replacing the old shells with new ones, which they do periodically anyway. According to South Korea two million a year on a one-shift peacetime schedule. If they get the raw materials and run three shifts (which they supposedly are now doing) making another three million a year (if not more) is entirely possible. They are also repurposing a mortar ammunition factory near their norther border to make 152 mm shells. Supply and demand in action! Maybe malnutrition can be reduced.