[Goose]

Russia would be very overextended from a conventional sense in the event of another conflict. But their nuclear forces are still enough of a deterrent that it would prevent China, or Poland, or Finland, or Japan from trying to press any of their irrendtist claims.

IMO absolutely correct. Poland, Finland, and Japan want no part of a war, conventional or otherwise with Russia. Apart from the nuclear threat, their air defenses are not good enough to prevent significant damage from the VKS. Russia couldn't win the war that way, but it could do enough damage it just wouldn't be worth it. Unlike Russia, these states are "sane" and could do the math. China probably figures Russia will become a wholly owned subsidiary soon enough anyway. Wait for the Russian economy to collapse and make them an offer they can't refuse. Much cleaner that way.

It would be a good time for any separatist movements on Russia's frontiers to try for a breakaway attempt, except that I think Russia has been heavily conscripting fighting-age men from those same areas.

Indeed Russia has been conscripting young men from these states. Lots of them don't come back, but those that do are trained killers and quite unhappy with Russia. If you are going to be drafted and sent on "meat attacks" you have nothing to lose. Why not rebel? Their will be plenty of experienced kinsman to lead you. IMO if Russia loses in Ukraine these states will try to become independent with 100% probability. If Russia "wins" or the war continues, the probability drops but it will be far from zero. Economic hardship, which is coming either way, will be a driver as well.

[Goose]

Russia would be very overextended from a conventional sense in the event of another conflict. But their nuclear forces are still enough of a deterrent that it would prevent China, or Poland, or Finland, or Japan from trying to press any of their irrendtist claims.

IMO absolutely correct. Poland, Finland, and Japan want no part of a war, conventional or otherwise with Russia. Apart from the nuclear threat, their air defenses are not good enough to prevent significant damage from the VKS. Russia couldn't win the war that way, but it could do enough damage it just wouldn't be worth it. Unlike Russia, these states are "sane" and could do the math. China probably figures Russia will become a wholly owned subsidiary soon enough anyway. Wait for the Russian economy to collapse and make them an offer they can't refuse. Much cleaner that way.

It would be a good time for any separatist movements on Russia's frontiers to try for a breakaway attempt, except that I think Russia has been heavily conscripting fighting-age men from those same areas.

Indeed Russia has been conscripting young men from these states. Lots of them don't come back, but those that do are trained killers and quite unhappy with Russia. If you are going to be drafted and sent on "meat attacks" you have nothing to lose. Why not rebel? Their will be plenty of experienced kinsman to lead you. IMO if Russia loses in Ukraine these states will try to become independent with 100% probability. If Russia "wins" or the war continues, the probability drops but it will be far from zero. Economic hardship, which is coming either way, will be a driver as well.