[Goose]

Goose, any lessons from the Israeli attack on Iran; seems like Iran’s Russian made air defense didn’t bother the Israeli Air Force much.  Not that Ukraine would get the 100 or so aircraft that supposedly participated in the attack, or permission to use them over Russian airspace, but it does raise questions about how effective the S-300 and S-400 systems really are.

BC

Israel is capable of executing a SEAD/DEAD plan. They have F-35Is that can approach relatively close to S-400 (family) systems with impunity. Israel has ELINT assets that have located essentially every S-400 system Iran has. Israel also had the luxury of time. It probably confirmed ever location by either satellite photos or HUMINT. When the SEAD plan was executed the "necessary" S-400 systems (plus probably a few more fore "safety") were destroyed. They never knew what hit them. The subsequent attacks by non-stealth aircraft were therefore unopposed. Just to be cautious, these aircraft mostly used stand-off weapons to avoid penetrating deep into Iranian air space and/or overflying the targets. This also greatly reduced the probability of encountering a SHORAD asset like a TOR or PANTSIR.

The "real" message of this attack to Iran was "When we come for you, you can't stop us. You can't even hurt us. You can't even slow us down. We will reduce you to rubble if we so wish". I hope they got the message. Some of them certainly did. The message here to anyone who wants to listen is that to protect yourself against air attack by even a halfway-competent adversary requires an air force. Missiles cannot (and never have) done the job on their own.

The S-400 system is a "very good" SAM system. It works. It can operate as part of an IADS, although Iran doesn't have enough assets to do that (and Russia in the Ukraine war for some reason is not doing that). There is no reason to believe the Iranians don't operate it well. The S-400 also has the inherent limitations of a land-mobile SAM system. You can't beat physics. Against "good" stealth vehicles all SAM systems have a big problem, some more than others. The missiles launched by these SAM sites have a much worse problem. Even if the S-400 can "see" the target (which they eventually will if it gets close enough), the missiles they launch will not guide on it.

Iran's long-range radars may have seen the potential Israeli attack developing. Their lack of AEW assets undoubtedly greatly hindered that detection. The absence of any kind of a barrier combat air patrol by Iran made the Israeli attack possible. If Iran had an air force there should have been a gigantic furball in the Persian Gulf area over hundreds of miles when the Israeli's strike arrived. The attack(s) may have still have got through, but it wouldn't be a sure thing and there would be losses. If Iran took down a tanker, there could have been big losses. It would at least have been "interesting". FWIW Israel at present has 39 F-35I aircraft (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-ink...3-billion/) I would guess they used about half of them on this effort. F-35 availability due to maintenance issues is not what we wish it were, so how many are actually "up" at any given time can be problematic.

Ukraine isn't getting any F-35s, for many good reasons. They apparently aren't getting very many F-16s or trained pilots either. It is possible to accomplish what the Israelis did against Iran using fourth generation aircraft, ECM, and anti-radiation missiles. Doing so still gets practiced by the US and other nations at Red Flag events. There will be losses, but a "tolerable" number, especially when the alternative is national extinction. Had the US two+ years ago spent a few minutes thinking about how Ukraine could actually win a war against the Russian Federation Ukraine might now have a "respectable" air force.  The PVO is gone. The "respectable" Ukrainian air force could do such a thing. That thinking was not done and it appears Ukraine will never get the necessary air power. The beat goes on with no end game. Ukraine proposed one, but it is unfortunately DOA in the EU for sure and the US very probably.

The war in Ukraine is being fought as if it were some crazed video game with a bunch of counter-intuitive, arbitrary rules and constraints made up to make it "more interesting" overlaid by the "real" rules and constraints. Of course, it isn't a game and lots of people are dying every day. It has and will have major consequences.

[Goose]

Goose, any lessons from the Israeli attack on Iran; seems like Iran’s Russian made air defense didn’t bother the Israeli Air Force much.  Not that Ukraine would get the 100 or so aircraft that supposedly participated in the attack, or permission to use them over Russian airspace, but it does raise questions about how effective the S-300 and S-400 systems really are.

BC

Israel is capable of executing a SEAD/DEAD plan. They have F-35Is that can approach relatively close to S-400 (family) systems with impunity. Israel has ELINT assets that have located essentially every S-400 system Iran has. Israel also had the luxury of time. It probably confirmed ever location by either satellite photos or HUMINT. When the SEAD plan was executed the "necessary" S-400 systems (plus probably a few more fore "safety") were destroyed. They never knew what hit them. The subsequent attacks by non-stealth aircraft were therefore unopposed. Just to be cautious, these aircraft mostly used stand-off weapons to avoid penetrating deep into Iranian air space and/or overflying the targets. This also greatly reduced the probability of encountering a SHORAD asset like a TOR or PANTSIR.

The "real" message of this attack to Iran was "When we come for you, you can't stop us. You can't even hurt us. You can't even slow us down. We will reduce you to rubble if we so wish". I hope they got the message. Some of them certainly did. The message here to anyone who wants to listen is that to protect yourself against air attack by even a halfway-competent adversary requires an air force. Missiles cannot (and never have) done the job on their own.

The S-400 system is a "very good" SAM system. It works. It can operate as part of an IADS, although Iran doesn't have enough assets to do that (and Russia in the Ukraine war for some reason is not doing that). There is no reason to believe the Iranians don't operate it well. The S-400 also has the inherent limitations of a land-mobile SAM system. You can't beat physics. Against "good" stealth vehicles all SAM systems have a big problem, some more than others. The missiles launched by these SAM sites have a much worse problem. Even if the S-400 can "see" the target (which they eventually will if it gets close enough), the missiles they launch will not guide on it.

Iran's long-range radars may have seen the potential Israeli attack developing. Their lack of AEW assets undoubtedly greatly hindered that detection. The absence of any kind of a barrier combat air patrol by Iran made the Israeli attack possible. If Iran had an air force there should have been a gigantic furball in the Persian Gulf area over hundreds of miles when the Israeli's strike arrived. The attack(s) may have still have got through, but it wouldn't be a sure thing and there would be losses. If Iran took down a tanker, there could have been big losses. It would at least have been "interesting". FWIW Israel at present has 39 F-35I aircraft (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-ink...3-billion/) I would guess they used about half of them on this effort. F-35 availability due to maintenance issues is not what we wish it were, so how many are actually "up" at any given time can be problematic.

Ukraine isn't getting any F-35s, for many good reasons. They apparently aren't getting very many F-16s or trained pilots either. It is possible to accomplish what the Israelis did against Iran using fourth generation aircraft, ECM, and anti-radiation missiles. Doing so still gets practiced by the US and other nations at Red Flag events. There will be losses, but a "tolerable" number, especially when the alternative is national extinction. Had the US two+ years ago spent a few minutes thinking about how Ukraine could actually win a war against the Russian Federation Ukraine might now have a "respectable" air force.  The PVO is gone. The "respectable" Ukrainian air force could do such a thing. That thinking was not done and it appears Ukraine will never get the necessary air power. The beat goes on with no end game. Ukraine proposed one, but it is unfortunately DOA in the EU for sure and the US very probably.

The war in Ukraine is being fought as if it were some crazed video game with a bunch of counter-intuitive, arbitrary rules and constraints made up to make it "more interesting" overlaid by the "real" rules and constraints. Of course, it isn't a game and lots of people are dying every day. It has and will have major consequences.