[dabigv13]

My guess is the peace plan will entail Ukraine ceding all territory presently held by Russia, returning any part of Kursk that is still occupied, a block on any accession to NATO (how relevant NATO will be is still very TBD, might become a Europe only thing soon). Doubt there will be appetite to send Ukraine any money or much more arms. Probably Russia will get sanctions relief and unfrozen assets as well.

Doubtful Europe will be able to influence anything, it will all be personalist negotiations.

It would be a recipe for renewed hostility after Russia can rearm, but Ukraine may not have a choice if the US stops aid.

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One late, small bright spot- Biden administration now allowing US military contractors to go to Ukraine for repair and sustainment purposes. Will be away from the front lines. Will be helpful for maintenance of F16s for the next two months until the new administration makes their own decisions.

[dabigv13]

My guess is the peace plan will entail Ukraine ceding all territory presently held by Russia, returning any part of Kursk that is still occupied, a block on any accession to NATO (how relevant NATO will be is still very TBD, might become a Europe only thing soon). Doubt there will be appetite to send Ukraine any money or much more arms. Probably Russia will get sanctions relief and unfrozen assets as well.

Doubtful Europe will be able to influence anything, it will all be personalist negotiations.

It would be a recipe for renewed hostility after Russia can rearm, but Ukraine may not have a choice if the US stops aid.

‐------

One late, small bright spot- Biden administration now allowing US military contractors to go to Ukraine for repair and sustainment purposes. Will be away from the front lines. Will be helpful for maintenance of F16s for the next two months until the new administration makes their own decisions.