[BostonCard]

I think the supposition that Ukraine is not a viable country without the territory that Russia holds is incorrect and unsupported. 

Well, I have asserted this and supported this many times in this thread. Unfortunately I can do it again :-). Russia presently holds most of the Ukrainian territory that contained legacy "smokestack" industry. That is what the Donbas is all about. While this industry was largely obsolete it did contribute considerably to the Ukraine GDP. The steel production at Mariupol is the major "poster child" of that.

Even if Ukraine could recover that territory, how much of that industry could be restarted?  Like, is the steel plant in Mariupol going to even be operational?  And if it could be restarted, will Ukraine have the population to run it?  The pre-war population of Mariupol was about 425,000; it is currently about 120,000.  I presume that the what’s left is mostly retirees; it is doubtful that many working age men are going to be there as they would have fought the Russians, been shipped to camps, or forced to fight for the Russians.  Given that a war is being fought in the territory, there will be tons (literally) of unexploded ordinance and mines pretty much everywhere.  My guess is that the loss of capital and labor in the region is staggering, so if Ukraine is not a viable country without those regions, then it would not be a viable country for many years even with the territory.  At this point, it would mostly serve as a buffer between what’s left of Ukraine and Russia.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think the supposition that Ukraine is not a viable country without the territory that Russia holds is incorrect and unsupported. 

Well, I have asserted this and supported this many times in this thread. Unfortunately I can do it again :-). Russia presently holds most of the Ukrainian territory that contained legacy "smokestack" industry. That is what the Donbas is all about. While this industry was largely obsolete it did contribute considerably to the Ukraine GDP. The steel production at Mariupol is the major "poster child" of that.

Even if Ukraine could recover that territory, how much of that industry could be restarted?  Like, is the steel plant in Mariupol going to even be operational?  And if it could be restarted, will Ukraine have the population to run it?  The pre-war population of Mariupol was about 425,000; it is currently about 120,000.  I presume that the what’s left is mostly retirees; it is doubtful that many working age men are going to be there as they would have fought the Russians, been shipped to camps, or forced to fight for the Russians.  Given that a war is being fought in the territory, there will be tons (literally) of unexploded ordinance and mines pretty much everywhere.  My guess is that the loss of capital and labor in the region is staggering, so if Ukraine is not a viable country without those regions, then it would not be a viable country for many years even with the territory.  At this point, it would mostly serve as a buffer between what’s left of Ukraine and Russia.

BC