[Mick]

This is true, and has been Ukraine's major asset for many years. Unfortunately, grains and agricultural are "low margin" commodities. They are also bulky. Their commercial viability is extremely sensitive to transportation costs. This is also true for commodities like unrefined ore, although their bulk to weight ratio is better than say grain. The generally accepted cost ratios for shipping via truck, rail, and barge (ship) is 12-4-1, i.e. truck is 12 times as expensive as shipping by barge. Ukraine is blessed with a very good water transport route. Historically it is the dominant form of transport. The commodities took the shortest possible route to the river, by barge to Crimea and then onto ships. After 2014 that became impossible. For a while Mykolaiv was viable, but after 2022 it was not. From 2014 on Odesa became much more important. As can be seen from https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/ukrain...5-mar-2022 Odesa is served by two rail lines. It is about as far from the agricultural areas as it could be. It is even further from barge traffic. When Ukraine could use the railway across the southern part of the country (Mariupol-Mykolaiv-Odesa) barge transport still could cover lots of the way. Now that isn't possible.

Train of thought, but I wonder if the U. S. will ever consider repealing the Jones Act, which mandates that interstate shipping via water transport be 75% owned by U. S. citizens, must be built in the USA, must fly the USA flag and be 75% manned by an American crew. In 1946, there 2,300 U. S. vessels in compliance with the Jones Act, today there is less than 100. Seems like it would really add to the economy if we repealed the Jones Act. We don't do this for air, rail or vehicular transport -- and maybe you keep the regulations -- but it seems this would give us a substantial boost.

What is the Jones Act? | Grassroot Institute of Hawaii

Peter Zeihan on reviving water transport in the USA - Repeats the 12:1 ratio.

[Mick]

This is true, and has been Ukraine's major asset for many years. Unfortunately, grains and agricultural are "low margin" commodities. They are also bulky. Their commercial viability is extremely sensitive to transportation costs. This is also true for commodities like unrefined ore, although their bulk to weight ratio is better than say grain. The generally accepted cost ratios for shipping via truck, rail, and barge (ship) is 12-4-1, i.e. truck is 12 times as expensive as shipping by barge. Ukraine is blessed with a very good water transport route. Historically it is the dominant form of transport. The commodities took the shortest possible route to the river, by barge to Crimea and then onto ships. After 2014 that became impossible. For a while Mykolaiv was viable, but after 2022 it was not. From 2014 on Odesa became much more important. As can be seen from https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/ukrain...5-mar-2022 Odesa is served by two rail lines. It is about as far from the agricultural areas as it could be. It is even further from barge traffic. When Ukraine could use the railway across the southern part of the country (Mariupol-Mykolaiv-Odesa) barge transport still could cover lots of the way. Now that isn't possible.

Train of thought, but I wonder if the U. S. will ever consider repealing the Jones Act, which mandates that interstate shipping via water transport be 75% owned by U. S. citizens, must be built in the USA, must fly the USA flag and be 75% manned by an American crew. In 1946, there 2,300 U. S. vessels in compliance with the Jones Act, today there is less than 100. Seems like it would really add to the economy if we repealed the Jones Act. We don't do this for air, rail or vehicular transport -- and maybe you keep the regulations -- but it seems this would give us a substantial boost.

What is the Jones Act? | Grassroot Institute of Hawaii

Peter Zeihan on reviving water transport in the USA - Repeats the 12:1 ratio.