[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-not-co...20336.html

This article indicates that Russia has indeed not made provisions for evacuating its main air base in Syria. It suggests that Aircraft might be transported to the naval base for shipment. Unserviceable aircraft maybe. Flyable ones will IMO be flown. MIG-31s are very large aircraft. Transporting them on a road is not at all easy.

Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad. To what extent that is true will be TBD. It appears from the article it is unclear where Assad actually is. I am guessing that Russia is negotiating like mad with all the rebel factions regarding the status of Russian bases. One would think the rebels, having been repeatedly attacked by Russian forces over the years would want them gone. However, this is the Middle East. All things are negotiable. I would not assume that Russia will be worse off after this all shakes out, however it ends. I also wouldn't assume they will retain any bases either. Both outcomes are easily possible.

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Regime forces have lost 4 different regional capitals today, to various rebel factions in southern and eastern Syria. Seems regime forces are mostly defecting or retreating. It's an open question if there will even be serious fighting over Damascus. May fall without a serious fight, like Kabul.

If the national institutions are rotten, even substantial foreign blood and treasure cannot prop up an unpopular regime for forever, as we learned in Afghanistan, after the Russians learned in Afghanistan, and as the Russians are relearning now in Syria.

Are you sure we learned/relearned in Afghanistan, and if we did learn something, what were our "take-aways"? I am not real sure what the "lessons" were or that we won't do something equally foolish in the future. Describing the "desired end state" and how to obtain it doesn't seem to be our strong suite.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-not-co...20336.html

This article indicates that Russia has indeed not made provisions for evacuating its main air base in Syria. It suggests that Aircraft might be transported to the naval base for shipment. Unserviceable aircraft maybe. Flyable ones will IMO be flown. MIG-31s are very large aircraft. Transporting them on a road is not at all easy.

Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad. To what extent that is true will be TBD. It appears from the article it is unclear where Assad actually is. I am guessing that Russia is negotiating like mad with all the rebel factions regarding the status of Russian bases. One would think the rebels, having been repeatedly attacked by Russian forces over the years would want them gone. However, this is the Middle East. All things are negotiable. I would not assume that Russia will be worse off after this all shakes out, however it ends. I also wouldn't assume they will retain any bases either. Both outcomes are easily possible.

---

Regime forces have lost 4 different regional capitals today, to various rebel factions in southern and eastern Syria. Seems regime forces are mostly defecting or retreating. It's an open question if there will even be serious fighting over Damascus. May fall without a serious fight, like Kabul.

If the national institutions are rotten, even substantial foreign blood and treasure cannot prop up an unpopular regime for forever, as we learned in Afghanistan, after the Russians learned in Afghanistan, and as the Russians are relearning now in Syria.

Are you sure we learned/relearned in Afghanistan, and if we did learn something, what were our "take-aways"? I am not real sure what the "lessons" were or that we won't do something equally foolish in the future. Describing the "desired end state" and how to obtain it doesn't seem to be our strong suite.