[Goose]

I think it's mostly about Putin not wanting an allied dictator facing the consequences of his actions. Not a good look if your buddy is lynched. People at home might start to get ideas. 

Also Putin is still supporting various other strongmen dictators. If they see Russia won't even give you a place to live when things go south, those guys may start to explore other arrangements.

I think you are at least partly right about this. Putin doesn't want to appear as an "unreliable ally" to any of his clients. He already has a very big black eye in this area because he didn't "support" Assad militarily when Assad needed it. Being unwilling to rescue Assad himself would look even worse. However, IMO there is another factor in play here. Russia probably also thinks Assad might still be useful to them at some point. Exactly how is probably not known, but until the "way ahead" in Syria is clarified, keeping Assad around "just in case" makes sense. When/if it no longer does Assad may or may not fall out of a window.

As far as the bases go, IMO Russia will quietly keep them until the "new" Syrian government is in a position to force them to leave and wishes to do so. Right now, everybody involved in the Syrian revolution has bigger fish to fry than worrying about the Russian bases. Russia has undoubtedly been in contact with various subsets of the rebels trying to make a "deal" and are still doing so. The Khmeimim air base is very close (21 miles) to rebel forces. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/03...e_vignette is obsolete (3-Dec) but it points out the risk/benefit of an attempt to actually occupy the base. IMO the rebels (soon to be part of some government of Syria, maybe) will adopt a "Don't poke the bear" approach for the immediate future. Afterwords, who knows?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/0...sad-a87260 has some insights on what Russia is trying to accomplish. I find one quote in a way quite humorous:

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Sunday that “Russian military bases in Syria are on heightened combat readiness.”

Really? I can't imagine why :-).

[Goose]

I think it's mostly about Putin not wanting an allied dictator facing the consequences of his actions. Not a good look if your buddy is lynched. People at home might start to get ideas. 

Also Putin is still supporting various other strongmen dictators. If they see Russia won't even give you a place to live when things go south, those guys may start to explore other arrangements.

I think you are at least partly right about this. Putin doesn't want to appear as an "unreliable ally" to any of his clients. He already has a very big black eye in this area because he didn't "support" Assad militarily when Assad needed it. Being unwilling to rescue Assad himself would look even worse. However, IMO there is another factor in play here. Russia probably also thinks Assad might still be useful to them at some point. Exactly how is probably not known, but until the "way ahead" in Syria is clarified, keeping Assad around "just in case" makes sense. When/if it no longer does Assad may or may not fall out of a window.

As far as the bases go, IMO Russia will quietly keep them until the "new" Syrian government is in a position to force them to leave and wishes to do so. Right now, everybody involved in the Syrian revolution has bigger fish to fry than worrying about the Russian bases. Russia has undoubtedly been in contact with various subsets of the rebels trying to make a "deal" and are still doing so. The Khmeimim air base is very close (21 miles) to rebel forces. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/03...e_vignette is obsolete (3-Dec) but it points out the risk/benefit of an attempt to actually occupy the base. IMO the rebels (soon to be part of some government of Syria, maybe) will adopt a "Don't poke the bear" approach for the immediate future. Afterwords, who knows?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/0...sad-a87260 has some insights on what Russia is trying to accomplish. I find one quote in a way quite humorous:

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Sunday that “Russian military bases in Syria are on heightened combat readiness.”

Really? I can't imagine why :-).