[Goose]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHj4uKwyAv8
Reuters has a similar story, but it is a paywall. It appears that Russia at least thinks it has a deal in place to ensure the safety of its bases in Syria. FWIW the Reuters article indicates that deal was not with HTS but with other rebel groups. Who knows what is actually true. Russian Mil bloggers are still concerned about the security of the bases.

In the YouTube video (ABC - Australia) "It looks like the exit of Assad has been done in exchange for the rebels leaving the bases alone"

Assad was going to "exit" one way or another. The benefit the rebels got is that all opposition to them ceased, because Assad ordered his people to quit. The transfer of power would be "peaceful". Of course,lots of Assad's troops were quitting anyway, but the bureaucrats will now cooperate too, rather than leave town. That is worth quite a bit to the rebels. On top of that, the rebels weren't going to go after the bases on day one anyway. They first have to organize some kind of government and stabilize the country, at least to a minimal extent. However that goes, it will take awhile.

---

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-eas...024-12-08/

Kind of interesting to see Turkey's role.  They didn't give approval, but apparently, on the other hand, they didn't forbid it either.  Assad should have negotiated peace when he had the chance...

BC

I think the only way Türkiye could stop HTS from doing whatever they wanted would be to take military action, either themselves or through their proxy the SNA. As the article states Türkiye probably figured HTS would make some progress but would probably end up being contained by Assad's forces. No reason for Türkiye to take casualties when somebody else was willing. It didn't work out that way, and now Türkiye, like everybody else, is trying to find a way ahead that serves their interests. The SNA is going to be a player in the "new" Syria. Türkiye is going to insist on that.

My guess is that Assad knew that groups like the HTS wouldn't accept him remaining in authority in a "negotiated" peace deal. Türkiye, Russia, and Iran would have liked that fine, but most Syrians wouldn't. Assad would end up getting the same deal he just did but without the drama. He probably thought he could weather the storm. If Iran had backed him with Hezbollah troops, he very well may have done so. The fact they did not is a bit puzzling. It appears Iran may have lost its nerve.

[Goose]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHj4uKwyAv8
Reuters has a similar story, but it is a paywall. It appears that Russia at least thinks it has a deal in place to ensure the safety of its bases in Syria. FWIW the Reuters article indicates that deal was not with HTS but with other rebel groups. Who knows what is actually true. Russian Mil bloggers are still concerned about the security of the bases.

In the YouTube video (ABC - Australia) "It looks like the exit of Assad has been done in exchange for the rebels leaving the bases alone"

Assad was going to "exit" one way or another. The benefit the rebels got is that all opposition to them ceased, because Assad ordered his people to quit. The transfer of power would be "peaceful". Of course,lots of Assad's troops were quitting anyway, but the bureaucrats will now cooperate too, rather than leave town. That is worth quite a bit to the rebels. On top of that, the rebels weren't going to go after the bases on day one anyway. They first have to organize some kind of government and stabilize the country, at least to a minimal extent. However that goes, it will take awhile.

---

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-eas...024-12-08/

Kind of interesting to see Turkey's role.  They didn't give approval, but apparently, on the other hand, they didn't forbid it either.  Assad should have negotiated peace when he had the chance...

BC

I think the only way Türkiye could stop HTS from doing whatever they wanted would be to take military action, either themselves or through their proxy the SNA. As the article states Türkiye probably figured HTS would make some progress but would probably end up being contained by Assad's forces. No reason for Türkiye to take casualties when somebody else was willing. It didn't work out that way, and now Türkiye, like everybody else, is trying to find a way ahead that serves their interests. The SNA is going to be a player in the "new" Syria. Türkiye is going to insist on that.

My guess is that Assad knew that groups like the HTS wouldn't accept him remaining in authority in a "negotiated" peace deal. Türkiye, Russia, and Iran would have liked that fine, but most Syrians wouldn't. Assad would end up getting the same deal he just did but without the drama. He probably thought he could weather the storm. If Iran had backed him with Hezbollah troops, he very well may have done so. The fact they did not is a bit puzzling. It appears Iran may have lost its nerve.