[Goose]

Glad Assad is out, and hope that what comes next is better.  Hard to believe that it could be worse than a person who deploys chemical weapons against his own people.  But still, I was hoping for better in Sudan when Omar al-Bashir was toppled, and yet now Sudan is in the midst of a civil war combined with a famine.

BC

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-says-...45501.html

Long way to go before this all settles out, if it ever does. Erdogan isn't going to accept anything less than getting rid of all his Syrian refugees. He also is going to attempt retaining a significant influence inside the next Syrian government. That may not work out so well for a "stable and democratic" Syria.

Right now, Iran seems to be on its back foot and not "pressing" anywhere. They have indeed had a "difficult year". As long as that remains the case, IMO there is some hope the chaos in Syria might remain limited. There are still lots of "bad things" that can happen, but they can probably be limited in scope to Syria itself. If Iran, either out of desperation or cold calculation, attempts to inject a large number of their client Iraqi Shiite fighters into Syria, all hell can break loose. HTS is Sunni. There are lots of Sunnis in Iraq that are not happy with the Shiite influence in their own country. This conflict could re-ignite in both Syria and Iraq. That might suit Iran just fine, because the Syrian government would be too busy fighting its opponents in Iraq and Syria to prevent Iran from running war material through the area to Lebanon. Of course, there are other groups, like the Kurds, who will need to protect their interests. Islamic State and al Qaeda are still active in both countries and will take advantage of the situation if they can. Let's hope Iran abstains from such a course, but I wouldn't bet on that in the medium term. Iran wants a compliant Syria, and it seems unlikely HTS will provide that, at least based on their statements.

[Goose]

Glad Assad is out, and hope that what comes next is better.  Hard to believe that it could be worse than a person who deploys chemical weapons against his own people.  But still, I was hoping for better in Sudan when Omar al-Bashir was toppled, and yet now Sudan is in the midst of a civil war combined with a famine.

BC

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-says-...45501.html

Long way to go before this all settles out, if it ever does. Erdogan isn't going to accept anything less than getting rid of all his Syrian refugees. He also is going to attempt retaining a significant influence inside the next Syrian government. That may not work out so well for a "stable and democratic" Syria.

Right now, Iran seems to be on its back foot and not "pressing" anywhere. They have indeed had a "difficult year". As long as that remains the case, IMO there is some hope the chaos in Syria might remain limited. There are still lots of "bad things" that can happen, but they can probably be limited in scope to Syria itself. If Iran, either out of desperation or cold calculation, attempts to inject a large number of their client Iraqi Shiite fighters into Syria, all hell can break loose. HTS is Sunni. There are lots of Sunnis in Iraq that are not happy with the Shiite influence in their own country. This conflict could re-ignite in both Syria and Iraq. That might suit Iran just fine, because the Syrian government would be too busy fighting its opponents in Iraq and Syria to prevent Iran from running war material through the area to Lebanon. Of course, there are other groups, like the Kurds, who will need to protect their interests. Islamic State and al Qaeda are still active in both countries and will take advantage of the situation if they can. Let's hope Iran abstains from such a course, but I wouldn't bet on that in the medium term. Iran wants a compliant Syria, and it seems unlikely HTS will provide that, at least based on their statements.