[Goose]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

There is no doubt that Putin's Russia has serious problems, many of which can't be easily solved. Most of these problems don't go away even if fighting in Ukraine ceases. There is also some controversy about many of the issues. For every article one finds saying Russia is "leaving Syria" one sees one like this https://www.dw.com/en/fate-of-russian-mi...a-71027207. Russia clearly is not evacuating their air or naval base yet. They may eventually have to, but until Syria has some kind of a functioning government IMO that won't happen.

There are articles saying that Russia has already found a "work-around" for the Gazprombank sanctions by allowing Hungary and Slovakia to convert "foreign currency" to Rubles at other banks and then transfer them as payments.

IMO nobody can easily predict what is going to happen in Russia. Like Assad in Syria, Putin will be in charge of Russia until he isn't, and that change can come suddenly. Often governments seem strong until somebody actually pushes on them. It is a very nonlinear effect. The analogy of the straw that broke the camels back is a real thing. What the US needs to do is plan for every eventuality. My hope is that the US and the EU do nothing to relieve pressure on Putin during negotiations regarding Ukraine. Right now, Putin is "winning" in Ukraine. He also has a "way out" if he decides Russia is becoming too "brittle" for his comfort. He can start peace negotiations, setting prenegotiation conditions that takes the pressure off (e.g. lifting sanctions). I hope we do not allow him to accomplish his goals before ensuring we accomplish ours, whatever they are ATM.

[Goose]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

There is no doubt that Putin's Russia has serious problems, many of which can't be easily solved. Most of these problems don't go away even if fighting in Ukraine ceases. There is also some controversy about many of the issues. For every article one finds saying Russia is "leaving Syria" one sees one like this https://www.dw.com/en/fate-of-russian-mi...a-71027207. Russia clearly is not evacuating their air or naval base yet. They may eventually have to, but until Syria has some kind of a functioning government IMO that won't happen.

There are articles saying that Russia has already found a "work-around" for the Gazprombank sanctions by allowing Hungary and Slovakia to convert "foreign currency" to Rubles at other banks and then transfer them as payments.

IMO nobody can easily predict what is going to happen in Russia. Like Assad in Syria, Putin will be in charge of Russia until he isn't, and that change can come suddenly. Often governments seem strong until somebody actually pushes on them. It is a very nonlinear effect. The analogy of the straw that broke the camels back is a real thing. What the US needs to do is plan for every eventuality. My hope is that the US and the EU do nothing to relieve pressure on Putin during negotiations regarding Ukraine. Right now, Putin is "winning" in Ukraine. He also has a "way out" if he decides Russia is becoming too "brittle" for his comfort. He can start peace negotiations, setting prenegotiation conditions that takes the pressure off (e.g. lifting sanctions). I hope we do not allow him to accomplish his goals before ensuring we accomplish ours, whatever they are ATM.