[GK3]

Ultimately this is Yvonne’s call, but given the enormity of the situation, far be it for me to put the kibosh on the discussion, even though technically it is political.

If you are looking to a Stanford sports angle to it (aside from the analogies), there is this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/looseshoulders/status/1497845117977182208?s=21[/tweet]

As for Putin, whether he wins or loses on the battlefield, he has already lost:
1) given Eastern European countries (plus Sweden and Finland) a strong rationale for joining NATO.
2) has exposed his army as a paper tiger
3) has done what US presidents going back three administrations have failed to do: get the European NATO allies to invest in defense
4) has convinced Europe to wean itself off Russian natural gas and will probably accelerate the transition from imported fossil fuels more generally
5) has devastated his country’s economy
6) has obliterated what was left of his reputation

It is heartbreaking that the Ukrainian people have suffered, and while I hope against hope that they repel the invaders, right now I am just praying that we can get to a cease fire to allow innocent civilians to evacuate.

BC

I'm not nearly as "optimistic" as you are regarding what this all has shown to date or what it will lead to in the future.
WAY too many wildcards, starting with the nut who invaded Ukraine - that's what a megalomaniac with absolute power (and no conscience) looks like.  Scary and unpredictable.

I don’t disagree with your take at all.  I think Putin has lost, but I don’t think that means that everything will turn out well for Western democracies.  In the best case scenario, it has brought misery and destruction to the Ukrainian people, a refugee crisis of 2 million and counting, a potential food crisis in countries that depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, higher energy prices for everyone and the potential of having to restart coal plants to make up for reduced gas.  And then there is the possibility of the conflict inadvertently widening, and even though I would consider this an unlikely event, that “megalomaniac with absolute power (and no conscience)” controls the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

So, yeah, this qualifies as an L for everyone.

BC

I am hoping that Ukraine can hold out for at least another year, but it will take a lot of western help.  This article on the economic situation in Russia and how it is being handled is quite interesting.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...es?lang=en
  I found the recruiting bonuses and starting salaries for recruits mindboggling.  When they need 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits a month, the rising costs are going to be significant. It seems like they are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  With effectively no unemployment, every man who joins the Army becomes a man who won't be working in a factory supporting the war.  I was also unaware that Russia was becoming Xenophobic.  This may limit their ability to use their eastern, non Russian nationals to the extent they would like.  There is also the rising cost of care for the wounded and payments to families who lost a loved one. 
I agree on you comments on Megalomania and Absolute Power.  His economy could drive Putin to do something very stupid if the wheels start to come off in a big way.  Putin's actions will be studied lonog after he is gone by future generations of econ and poly sci students. Russia has also proven itself vulnerable to Ukraine's inventive use of drones and sabatoge to take out big ticket items that hurt the Russian war effort and cannot be easily replaced.  Unfortunately, Ukraine's own limitations are even worse than the ones Putin has to deal with.
The grain export declines this year could cause other problems.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insig...port-curbs

[GK3]

Ultimately this is Yvonne’s call, but given the enormity of the situation, far be it for me to put the kibosh on the discussion, even though technically it is political.

If you are looking to a Stanford sports angle to it (aside from the analogies), there is this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/looseshoulders/status/1497845117977182208?s=21[/tweet]

As for Putin, whether he wins or loses on the battlefield, he has already lost:
1) given Eastern European countries (plus Sweden and Finland) a strong rationale for joining NATO.
2) has exposed his army as a paper tiger
3) has done what US presidents going back three administrations have failed to do: get the European NATO allies to invest in defense
4) has convinced Europe to wean itself off Russian natural gas and will probably accelerate the transition from imported fossil fuels more generally
5) has devastated his country’s economy
6) has obliterated what was left of his reputation

It is heartbreaking that the Ukrainian people have suffered, and while I hope against hope that they repel the invaders, right now I am just praying that we can get to a cease fire to allow innocent civilians to evacuate.

BC

I'm not nearly as "optimistic" as you are regarding what this all has shown to date or what it will lead to in the future.
WAY too many wildcards, starting with the nut who invaded Ukraine - that's what a megalomaniac with absolute power (and no conscience) looks like.  Scary and unpredictable.

I don’t disagree with your take at all.  I think Putin has lost, but I don’t think that means that everything will turn out well for Western democracies.  In the best case scenario, it has brought misery and destruction to the Ukrainian people, a refugee crisis of 2 million and counting, a potential food crisis in countries that depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, higher energy prices for everyone and the potential of having to restart coal plants to make up for reduced gas.  And then there is the possibility of the conflict inadvertently widening, and even though I would consider this an unlikely event, that “megalomaniac with absolute power (and no conscience)” controls the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

So, yeah, this qualifies as an L for everyone.

BC

I am hoping that Ukraine can hold out for at least another year, but it will take a lot of western help.  This article on the economic situation in Russia and how it is being handled is quite interesting.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...es?lang=en
  I found the recruiting bonuses and starting salaries for recruits mindboggling.  When they need 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits a month, the rising costs are going to be significant. It seems like they are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  With effectively no unemployment, every man who joins the Army becomes a man who won't be working in a factory supporting the war.  I was also unaware that Russia was becoming Xenophobic.  This may limit their ability to use their eastern, non Russian nationals to the extent they would like.  There is also the rising cost of care for the wounded and payments to families who lost a loved one. 
I agree on you comments on Megalomania and Absolute Power.  His economy could drive Putin to do something very stupid if the wheels start to come off in a big way.  Putin's actions will be studied lonog after he is gone by future generations of econ and poly sci students. Russia has also proven itself vulnerable to Ukraine's inventive use of drones and sabatoge to take out big ticket items that hurt the Russian war effort and cannot be easily replaced.  Unfortunately, Ukraine's own limitations are even worse than the ones Putin has to deal with.
The grain export declines this year could cause other problems.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insig...port-curbs