[Goose]

I am hoping that Ukraine can hold out for at least another year, but it will take a lot of western help.

As are we all. The western help issue is complicated by the apparent intention of the US to obtain some kind of a negotiated cease-fire at a minimum. Zelenskyy is saying the same, more or less. Whether this is his preference, a policy change forced upon him by the situation inside Ukraine, or the belief he has no other choice due to US policy is unknown. Ukraine's ability to fight on another year is questionable. However, that won't matter if the US forces a "solution" of the war in the nearer term. Putin may just keep saying "Nyet"  until the US loses patience and gives him exactly what he wants. If Ukraine decides that will be the ultimate result, they probably will quit fighting before that happens. OTOH it is just possible that Putin will overplay his hand and cause the US to dig in their heels. Hope for the latter.

This article on the economic situation in Russia and how it is being handled is quite interesting.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...es?lang=en
I found the recruiting bonuses and starting salaries for recruits mindboggling.  When they need 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits a month, the rising costs are going to be significant. It seems like they are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  With effectively no unemployment, every man who joins the Army becomes a man who won't be working in a factory supporting the war.

Unfortunately the ability of western economists to predict what will happen in Russia is universally horrible. This was true back in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and is even more true today. Essentially nobody predicted the economic collapse at that time. Subsequent attempts to help Russia transition to a market economy led by said economists completely failed. Western economists don't understand the economics of "the center" that ran Russia during the Cold War and still does today. These economists shouldn't feel so bad as the Russians don't understand it either :-). Russia actually has several economies that interact but are largely independent of each other. The 19% inflation felt in Moscow or St. Petersburg largely doesn't exist in the rural areas.  There are so many subsidized industries operating in Russia that "normal" economic principals simply don't apply. This doesn't mean the Russian economy is "just fine". It does mean we don't understand it well enough to make reliable predictions. As the article rightly points out, Russia isn't even gathering and releasing the (unreliable) economic data it used to. Even if the economy was understood the lack of data makes forecasting its trajectory impossible.

I was also unaware that Russia was becoming Xenophobic.  This may limit their ability to use their eastern, non Russian nationals to the extent they would like. 

Russia has always been Xenophobic. The racial pecking order has always existed. Ukrainians, even though "fellow Slavs" were always to some degree second class citizens. Georgians are barbarians, making Stalin's rise to power a bit of a surprise. He reinforced the stereotype. If you aren't an "ethnic Russian", you are some kind of "untermensch". That however in no way inhibits the Russian ability to use these people as cannon fodder. Right now, Russia is using 10,000 Koreans (the ultimate "foreigners") to fight their battles.  There are more on the way. No problem at all.

There is also the rising cost of care for the wounded and payments to families who lost a loved one. 
I agree on you comments on Megalomania and Absolute Power.  His economy could drive Putin to do something very stupid if the wheels start to come off in a big way.  Putin's actions will be studied long after he is gone by future generations of econ and poly sci students. Russia has also proven itself vulnerable to Ukraine's inventive use of drones and sabatoge to take out big ticket items that hurt the Russian war effort and cannot be easily replaced.

Unfortunately those Ukrainian successes, while in some cases quite significant, have not yet proven adequate to stop Russia. The destruction of Russian logistics, particularly the large ammunition dumps, has helped. It is not near enough.

Unfortunately, Ukraine's own limitations are even worse than the ones Putin has to deal with.
The grain export declines this year could cause other problems.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insig...port-curbs

Ukraine does indeed have its own problems. IMO the biggest one right now is the concern that the US is going to throw them under the bus in negotiations. My fear is that Putin will insist on sanctions relief (and asset unfreezing) to even start talking. Putin is certainly under pressure as the article cited indicates. He may not be able to survive it. We don't really know if and when it will "get him", but it is a factor. If however this pressure is significantly reduced, his odds get a lot better. He can now stall and wait for his troops to swallow the rest of Ukraine (possibly at great human cost) or for Ukraine to collapse. That is the scenario I think Zelenskyy and the rest of Ukraine greatly fears.

[Goose]

I am hoping that Ukraine can hold out for at least another year, but it will take a lot of western help.

As are we all. The western help issue is complicated by the apparent intention of the US to obtain some kind of a negotiated cease-fire at a minimum. Zelenskyy is saying the same, more or less. Whether this is his preference, a policy change forced upon him by the situation inside Ukraine, or the belief he has no other choice due to US policy is unknown. Ukraine's ability to fight on another year is questionable. However, that won't matter if the US forces a "solution" of the war in the nearer term. Putin may just keep saying "Nyet"  until the US loses patience and gives him exactly what he wants. If Ukraine decides that will be the ultimate result, they probably will quit fighting before that happens. OTOH it is just possible that Putin will overplay his hand and cause the US to dig in their heels. Hope for the latter.

This article on the economic situation in Russia and how it is being handled is quite interesting.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...es?lang=en
I found the recruiting bonuses and starting salaries for recruits mindboggling.  When they need 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits a month, the rising costs are going to be significant. It seems like they are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  With effectively no unemployment, every man who joins the Army becomes a man who won't be working in a factory supporting the war.

Unfortunately the ability of western economists to predict what will happen in Russia is universally horrible. This was true back in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and is even more true today. Essentially nobody predicted the economic collapse at that time. Subsequent attempts to help Russia transition to a market economy led by said economists completely failed. Western economists don't understand the economics of "the center" that ran Russia during the Cold War and still does today. These economists shouldn't feel so bad as the Russians don't understand it either :-). Russia actually has several economies that interact but are largely independent of each other. The 19% inflation felt in Moscow or St. Petersburg largely doesn't exist in the rural areas.  There are so many subsidized industries operating in Russia that "normal" economic principals simply don't apply. This doesn't mean the Russian economy is "just fine". It does mean we don't understand it well enough to make reliable predictions. As the article rightly points out, Russia isn't even gathering and releasing the (unreliable) economic data it used to. Even if the economy was understood the lack of data makes forecasting its trajectory impossible.

I was also unaware that Russia was becoming Xenophobic.  This may limit their ability to use their eastern, non Russian nationals to the extent they would like. 

Russia has always been Xenophobic. The racial pecking order has always existed. Ukrainians, even though "fellow Slavs" were always to some degree second class citizens. Georgians are barbarians, making Stalin's rise to power a bit of a surprise. He reinforced the stereotype. If you aren't an "ethnic Russian", you are some kind of "untermensch". That however in no way inhibits the Russian ability to use these people as cannon fodder. Right now, Russia is using 10,000 Koreans (the ultimate "foreigners") to fight their battles.  There are more on the way. No problem at all.

There is also the rising cost of care for the wounded and payments to families who lost a loved one. 
I agree on you comments on Megalomania and Absolute Power.  His economy could drive Putin to do something very stupid if the wheels start to come off in a big way.  Putin's actions will be studied long after he is gone by future generations of econ and poly sci students. Russia has also proven itself vulnerable to Ukraine's inventive use of drones and sabatoge to take out big ticket items that hurt the Russian war effort and cannot be easily replaced.

Unfortunately those Ukrainian successes, while in some cases quite significant, have not yet proven adequate to stop Russia. The destruction of Russian logistics, particularly the large ammunition dumps, has helped. It is not near enough.

Unfortunately, Ukraine's own limitations are even worse than the ones Putin has to deal with.
The grain export declines this year could cause other problems.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insig...port-curbs

Ukraine does indeed have its own problems. IMO the biggest one right now is the concern that the US is going to throw them under the bus in negotiations. My fear is that Putin will insist on sanctions relief (and asset unfreezing) to even start talking. Putin is certainly under pressure as the article cited indicates. He may not be able to survive it. We don't really know if and when it will "get him", but it is a factor. If however this pressure is significantly reduced, his odds get a lot better. He can now stall and wait for his troops to swallow the rest of Ukraine (possibly at great human cost) or for Ukraine to collapse. That is the scenario I think Zelenskyy and the rest of Ukraine greatly fears.