[Goose]

ISW latest reports indicate some increasing unhappiness with the Russian Elites and the conduct of the war.  Ukraine continues to do considerable long range damage to Russian storage facilities and Push may come to Shove fairly soon.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ary-9-2025

Thanks for the link. For quite sometime there have been members of the "elite" that have called for a "larger" effort by Russia, including a full mobilization. This group is apparently getting larger. IMO this increase comes from members of the elite that fear Putin will negotiate and stop the war. That definitely makes all of the military much less important and diminishes the defense budget. These elites obviously don't want that to happen, as they derive their power and financial success from the military largess. If peace breaks out, it is bad for them. Worse still, when the inevitable search for scapegoats starts, it quite probably will be some (or most) of these elites suddenly found to be "corrupt". Since the current status-quo might not be acceptable to Putin, upping the ante is the only way to keep this war going. That is what these "elites" want, and they fear Putin will not do it.

I also find it unbelievable that any Russian would want to "restore maneuver warfare". Russia clearly demonstrated at the start of this war, when they had all the freedom of maneuver anyone could want, that they were incompetent at this type of warfare. The battle that exists now maximizes the benefit of Russia's superior numbers while minimizing the impact of their strategic, organizational and logistical limitations. If by "maneuver warfare"  one means a Ukrainian collapse, it makes sense, but in no other context does it.

IMO the damage Ukraine is doing to fuel and ammunition supplies is considerable, and is therefore important. At the same time, it isn't sufficient to materially change the course of the conflict. If Ukraine could increase this damage and couple it with damaging the refining and exporting capability of Russia, that could begin to become strategically important. Ukraine has shown the capability to sporadically do this. What Ukraine now needs is the ability to sustain repeated attacks on the same objective. As the Germans pointed out at the end of WW II, they were able to "work around" most bomb damage fairly quickly if allowed to do so. What they couldn't overcome was the repeated bombings of the same objective that destroyed the "work arounds" and made it unsafe/pointless to attempt new ones.

[Goose]

ISW latest reports indicate some increasing unhappiness with the Russian Elites and the conduct of the war.  Ukraine continues to do considerable long range damage to Russian storage facilities and Push may come to Shove fairly soon.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ary-9-2025

Thanks for the link. For quite sometime there have been members of the "elite" that have called for a "larger" effort by Russia, including a full mobilization. This group is apparently getting larger. IMO this increase comes from members of the elite that fear Putin will negotiate and stop the war. That definitely makes all of the military much less important and diminishes the defense budget. These elites obviously don't want that to happen, as they derive their power and financial success from the military largess. If peace breaks out, it is bad for them. Worse still, when the inevitable search for scapegoats starts, it quite probably will be some (or most) of these elites suddenly found to be "corrupt". Since the current status-quo might not be acceptable to Putin, upping the ante is the only way to keep this war going. That is what these "elites" want, and they fear Putin will not do it.

I also find it unbelievable that any Russian would want to "restore maneuver warfare". Russia clearly demonstrated at the start of this war, when they had all the freedom of maneuver anyone could want, that they were incompetent at this type of warfare. The battle that exists now maximizes the benefit of Russia's superior numbers while minimizing the impact of their strategic, organizational and logistical limitations. If by "maneuver warfare"  one means a Ukrainian collapse, it makes sense, but in no other context does it.

IMO the damage Ukraine is doing to fuel and ammunition supplies is considerable, and is therefore important. At the same time, it isn't sufficient to materially change the course of the conflict. If Ukraine could increase this damage and couple it with damaging the refining and exporting capability of Russia, that could begin to become strategically important. Ukraine has shown the capability to sporadically do this. What Ukraine now needs is the ability to sustain repeated attacks on the same objective. As the Germans pointed out at the end of WW II, they were able to "work around" most bomb damage fairly quickly if allowed to do so. What they couldn't overcome was the repeated bombings of the same objective that destroyed the "work arounds" and made it unsafe/pointless to attempt new ones.