[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-hits-...26274.html

Once again Russia takes a significant hit on a very important industrial target. IMO the Russia numbers of drones shot down are nonsense. It is attempt to make it look like they actually have a defense. Ukraine can't launch that many long range drones on a regular basis. They don't have them in that quantity. Also, the only way to do that would be by the VKS hitting the drones all along their flight path. That type of operation wouldn't go unnoticed. Point defense systems would be easily overwhelmed. Now, Ukraine needs to repeat it in about 4-5 days. Don't let them fix anything! Damage more things.

It must be acknowledged Ukraine is taking a pounding from Russian drones as well. However, Ukraine does have a credible multi-layer drone defense network that does knock down lots of Russian drones. It has taken Ukraine several years to build it up, and it relies on a lot of "gifted" equipment, some of which wasn't well suited to its eventual operational use. Ukraine has made it work fairly well despite the challenges. Russia hasn't (yet) because they never expected to need it. They do now. How quickly they adapt will be interesting. Ukraine needs to pour it on now, because eventually Russia will adapt. Imperative not to give them the time. Ukraine has a much lower bar to success than Russia does. Putin really can't afford to have the public start openly questioning his conduct of the war. Impacting oil exports "significantly" can accomplish this. It can also affect the Russian recruiting and defense budget.

Ukraine actually has a perverse advantage in the drone war. Ukraine doesn't actually have identifiable economic centers of gravity that are concentrated in a few locations and somewhat fragile. The port of Odessa is probably the closest thing to that Ukraine has, and they load bulk cargo there, not oil. The infrastructure doesn't have the tendency to explode all on its own :-). Russia needs to export to keep the money flowing in. If that flow is significantly reduced, the Russian public is really going to notice. Ukraine's economy is already a shambles. The public already knows that. The Russians are going after the electric grid, but that is widely distributed.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-li...ear-energy

Ukraine has 15 operable nuclear reactors at four plants that generate about half of its electricity. All reactors are Russian VVER types, two being upgraded 440 MWe V-312 models and the rest the larger 1000 MWe units – two early models and the rest V-320s.

Russia can't go after Ukraine's remaining nuclear power plants directly because the resulting fallout (literal and figurative) would be too serious. Eventually, Russia may be able to knock Ukraine out of the war by drone bombardment coupled with its land offensive. It is highly improbable drones alone can do it.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-hits-...26274.html

Once again Russia takes a significant hit on a very important industrial target. IMO the Russia numbers of drones shot down are nonsense. It is attempt to make it look like they actually have a defense. Ukraine can't launch that many long range drones on a regular basis. They don't have them in that quantity. Also, the only way to do that would be by the VKS hitting the drones all along their flight path. That type of operation wouldn't go unnoticed. Point defense systems would be easily overwhelmed. Now, Ukraine needs to repeat it in about 4-5 days. Don't let them fix anything! Damage more things.

It must be acknowledged Ukraine is taking a pounding from Russian drones as well. However, Ukraine does have a credible multi-layer drone defense network that does knock down lots of Russian drones. It has taken Ukraine several years to build it up, and it relies on a lot of "gifted" equipment, some of which wasn't well suited to its eventual operational use. Ukraine has made it work fairly well despite the challenges. Russia hasn't (yet) because they never expected to need it. They do now. How quickly they adapt will be interesting. Ukraine needs to pour it on now, because eventually Russia will adapt. Imperative not to give them the time. Ukraine has a much lower bar to success than Russia does. Putin really can't afford to have the public start openly questioning his conduct of the war. Impacting oil exports "significantly" can accomplish this. It can also affect the Russian recruiting and defense budget.

Ukraine actually has a perverse advantage in the drone war. Ukraine doesn't actually have identifiable economic centers of gravity that are concentrated in a few locations and somewhat fragile. The port of Odessa is probably the closest thing to that Ukraine has, and they load bulk cargo there, not oil. The infrastructure doesn't have the tendency to explode all on its own :-). Russia needs to export to keep the money flowing in. If that flow is significantly reduced, the Russian public is really going to notice. Ukraine's economy is already a shambles. The public already knows that. The Russians are going after the electric grid, but that is widely distributed.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-li...ear-energy

Ukraine has 15 operable nuclear reactors at four plants that generate about half of its electricity. All reactors are Russian VVER types, two being upgraded 440 MWe V-312 models and the rest the larger 1000 MWe units – two early models and the rest V-320s.

Russia can't go after Ukraine's remaining nuclear power plants directly because the resulting fallout (literal and figurative) would be too serious. Eventually, Russia may be able to knock Ukraine out of the war by drone bombardment coupled with its land offensive. It is highly improbable drones alone can do it.