[Goose]

I had a similar reaction.  Georgia is moving towards Russia, so the dominoes theory only works if the Georgian people stage a "color revolution" against Georgian Dream.  It could happen, but my sense is that Georgian Dream is consolidating power.  Likewise in Belarus, it is possible that Lukoshenko goes the way of Yanukovic, but he could also... not.  That's why I said it was a bit of wishful thinking.

BC

I too doubt the "domino theory" applies. IMO what happens in Georgia is very unpredictable. Georgian Dream is indeed attempting to consolidate their power, and their opponents are desperately trying to prevent that outcome. The Georgian Dream party is being inhibited a bit by the fact they can't rely on Russia to intervene with troops as necessary. That may keep things in limbo for a long time.

Lukoshenko isn't going to get removed by the populace. The belief is that he has a deal with Putin that as long as he lives he will be allowed to rule in Belarus. This belief is his life insurance policy. He keeps Russia from absorbing Belarus. Lots of the populace wants him gone, but they fear if he is, they get Putin. IMO when Lukoshenko dies, some part of the Belarus population will militarily resist absorption into the Russian federation. One side effect of Ukraine being defeated and absorbed into Russia would be that the Belorussian population will decide that indeed "resistance is futile".

[Goose]

I had a similar reaction.  Georgia is moving towards Russia, so the dominoes theory only works if the Georgian people stage a "color revolution" against Georgian Dream.  It could happen, but my sense is that Georgian Dream is consolidating power.  Likewise in Belarus, it is possible that Lukoshenko goes the way of Yanukovic, but he could also... not.  That's why I said it was a bit of wishful thinking.

BC

I too doubt the "domino theory" applies. IMO what happens in Georgia is very unpredictable. Georgian Dream is indeed attempting to consolidate their power, and their opponents are desperately trying to prevent that outcome. The Georgian Dream party is being inhibited a bit by the fact they can't rely on Russia to intervene with troops as necessary. That may keep things in limbo for a long time.

Lukoshenko isn't going to get removed by the populace. The belief is that he has a deal with Putin that as long as he lives he will be allowed to rule in Belarus. This belief is his life insurance policy. He keeps Russia from absorbing Belarus. Lots of the populace wants him gone, but they fear if he is, they get Putin. IMO when Lukoshenko dies, some part of the Belarus population will militarily resist absorption into the Russian federation. One side effect of Ukraine being defeated and absorbed into Russia would be that the Belorussian population will decide that indeed "resistance is futile".