02-03-2025, 03:12 PM
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...025-02-03/
And the beat goes on. Ukraine is continuing to repeatedly pound Russian refineries. I am hoping to see definite re-attacks of previously damaged refineries. Unfortunately the drones apparently do not carry a very large warhead and the damage a near miss can generate is limited. That said, it doesn't take much damage to shut down a refinery, at least for awhile. Repeated attacks complicate the repairs because you can't test a previous repair if the refinery is down due to other more recent damage.
IMO the Russia statistics of how many drones they destroyed are not at all credible. First of all, Russia claims all the damage is done by "falling derbies". Derbies don't create the magnitude of problems these refineries experience. Second, we see no reference to VKS activities. We also don't hear about how the "70 drones" were shot down. It is not credible that Russia has deployed enough SHORAD along the drone tracks to shoot down that many drones. The Russians don't know which refinery is targeted and they don't know the path the drones will take to get wherever they are going. The drones flying at low altitude give the Russians little time to respond. There is no geometric possibility of one SHORAD battery shooting down 70 drones unless they arrived a few at a time. Ukraine isn't going to do that and there is no indication the engagement lasted very long.
And the beat goes on. Ukraine is continuing to repeatedly pound Russian refineries. I am hoping to see definite re-attacks of previously damaged refineries. Unfortunately the drones apparently do not carry a very large warhead and the damage a near miss can generate is limited. That said, it doesn't take much damage to shut down a refinery, at least for awhile. Repeated attacks complicate the repairs because you can't test a previous repair if the refinery is down due to other more recent damage.
IMO the Russia statistics of how many drones they destroyed are not at all credible. First of all, Russia claims all the damage is done by "falling derbies". Derbies don't create the magnitude of problems these refineries experience. Second, we see no reference to VKS activities. We also don't hear about how the "70 drones" were shot down. It is not credible that Russia has deployed enough SHORAD along the drone tracks to shoot down that many drones. The Russians don't know which refinery is targeted and they don't know the path the drones will take to get wherever they are going. The drones flying at low altitude give the Russians little time to respond. There is no geometric possibility of one SHORAD battery shooting down 70 drones unless they arrived a few at a time. Ukraine isn't going to do that and there is no indication the engagement lasted very long.