[GK3]

Also, whether damage is done by debris or by an intact drone is a distinction without a difference.  If Ukraine's aim is to damage the refineries, and Russia's (presumably) is to prevent such damage, then what causes the damage is an academic distinction, that is maybe important to the Russian air defense units trying to deflect blame.

BC

Yes indeed, if you break it you break it, doesn't make much difference how. As far as the previous discusion of falling dominoes, hard to say what will happen in Georgia and I agree with Goose on the situation in Belarus.  Syria I think remains an opportunity, but we don't seem inclined to get involved. The new government, such as it is, seems to prone to kick out both Russia and Iran.
 I would think this would give us an opportunity to at least offer some economic assistance without a quid pro quo. We seem unable to cobble together any sort of middle eastern policy that works. Maybe we help through Turkey. We also have a bad history with Dominoes.  As I recall that was the big bogey man when we got involved in SE Asia. Then of course there is the situation in Africa.  The world is still a fairly dangerous place in many locations.
In my mind the big long term question is what happens when there is no more Putin.  He is not a young man. He is probably approaching or has past his "use by acturial date".  Iran has seen its zone of influence decrease significantly and there may be issues there with its decline in influence.

We can't forget Africa. If you look at a map of Africa, the most "stable" countries are those closest to Europe and the Middle East.  This map reflects just how much of that continent is a mess: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-..._314472550

Our new President has now offered more assistance to Ukraine in return for access to its so-called precious metal ores.  Russia seems to find this an issue.  I think the rare earth sources impact a lot of this instability. The following map and article are of interest:
https://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/fin...osits.html

[GK3]

Also, whether damage is done by debris or by an intact drone is a distinction without a difference.  If Ukraine's aim is to damage the refineries, and Russia's (presumably) is to prevent such damage, then what causes the damage is an academic distinction, that is maybe important to the Russian air defense units trying to deflect blame.

BC

Yes indeed, if you break it you break it, doesn't make much difference how. As far as the previous discusion of falling dominoes, hard to say what will happen in Georgia and I agree with Goose on the situation in Belarus.  Syria I think remains an opportunity, but we don't seem inclined to get involved. The new government, such as it is, seems to prone to kick out both Russia and Iran.
 I would think this would give us an opportunity to at least offer some economic assistance without a quid pro quo. We seem unable to cobble together any sort of middle eastern policy that works. Maybe we help through Turkey. We also have a bad history with Dominoes.  As I recall that was the big bogey man when we got involved in SE Asia. Then of course there is the situation in Africa.  The world is still a fairly dangerous place in many locations.
In my mind the big long term question is what happens when there is no more Putin.  He is not a young man. He is probably approaching or has past his "use by acturial date".  Iran has seen its zone of influence decrease significantly and there may be issues there with its decline in influence.

We can't forget Africa. If you look at a map of Africa, the most "stable" countries are those closest to Europe and the Middle East.  This map reflects just how much of that continent is a mess: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-..._314472550

Our new President has now offered more assistance to Ukraine in return for access to its so-called precious metal ores.  Russia seems to find this an issue.  I think the rare earth sources impact a lot of this instability. The following map and article are of interest:
https://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/fin...osits.html