[Goose]

Kissinger saw it the same way -- he strongly advocated for neutrality, as with Austria.

Kissinger saw a lot of things, some of which happened, some of which didn't. In the case of Ukrainian, events proved that a neutral Ukraine was unacceptable to Russia. The first Bush administration "saw" that was true and encouraged them to stay inside the Russian Federation. The "Chicken Kiev" speech was a poster child for that.

Let us examine Austrian situation in 1945. Vienna is 1612 km from the present-day Russian border. In 1945 Russia was busy trying to control what became the Warsaw Pact nations. They were buffer states that separated Russia from Austria. While Russia occupied most of Austria, Austria was effectively surrounded by US forces in Bavaria and Italy. Austria is not part of the European Plain (https://www.britannica.com/place/European-Plain) which is considered the strategic gateway Europe to/from Russia corridor.  Austria is definitely not Slavic. Today it is 66% Roman Catholic and 2.2% Eastern Orthodox, so there were neither ethnic ties nor religious ties to the Soviet Union (as if it cared about religion). Therefore Austria wasn't important to Stalin/Russia. He had his hands full in the Balkan States. Both the US and the Soviet Union wanted to avoid conflict, so neutrality made sense to both. Austria is not a member of NATO. It joined the EU in 1995. Russia never had any particular political influence there.

Ukraine's situation was and is NOTHING like Austria's in 1945. For starters, Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union. Ukraine's economy was therefore totally integrated with Russia's. Ukraine is a mostly Slavic country and is 78% Eastern Orthodox. Ukraine very definitely IS in the European Plain. Ukraine therefore is an important factor in Russian defense. Ukraine also shares a very long common border with Russia. More importantly, Ukraine contained the home port of the Russian Black Sea fleet. It also could interdict traffic to/from the Sea of Azov.

After Ukraine did not join the Russian Federation in 1991 it became independent. It was militarily neutral, although it retained close ties with Russia.  In 2004 the presidential election was overturned by the courts in response to widespread improper interference by Russia in eastern Ukraine. Consult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_history_of_Ukraine for whatever details you might want. Russia continued to be the gorilla in the room until 2014. At that point the Ukrainian legislature overwhelmingly  passed a resolution to seek closer ties with the EU leading to eventual membership. The Russian aligned president refused to implement the decision. This resulted in the Euromaidan revolution. The President fled to Russia.

Russia responded by seizing Crimea, a part of the territory of a militarily neutral Ukraine. This action happened well before there was a hint that Ukraine wanted to join NATO. At that point, all Ukraine was trying to do was join the EU, something Austria, the "prototype" for Kissinger's  neutrality, had already done. It was absolutely clear that Russia was unwilling to allow an independent Ukraine that was not a client state of Russia. From 2004 to 2014 they more-or less were exactly that, "neutral" but beholden to Russia, with Russia repeatedly interfering in their internal affairs. Russia's violent reaction to Ukraine's even attempting to exercise their independence and assert their "neutrality" clearly demonstrates Dr. Kissinger was, once again, mistaken.

[Goose]

Kissinger saw it the same way -- he strongly advocated for neutrality, as with Austria.

Kissinger saw a lot of things, some of which happened, some of which didn't. In the case of Ukrainian, events proved that a neutral Ukraine was unacceptable to Russia. The first Bush administration "saw" that was true and encouraged them to stay inside the Russian Federation. The "Chicken Kiev" speech was a poster child for that.

Let us examine Austrian situation in 1945. Vienna is 1612 km from the present-day Russian border. In 1945 Russia was busy trying to control what became the Warsaw Pact nations. They were buffer states that separated Russia from Austria. While Russia occupied most of Austria, Austria was effectively surrounded by US forces in Bavaria and Italy. Austria is not part of the European Plain (https://www.britannica.com/place/European-Plain) which is considered the strategic gateway Europe to/from Russia corridor.  Austria is definitely not Slavic. Today it is 66% Roman Catholic and 2.2% Eastern Orthodox, so there were neither ethnic ties nor religious ties to the Soviet Union (as if it cared about religion). Therefore Austria wasn't important to Stalin/Russia. He had his hands full in the Balkan States. Both the US and the Soviet Union wanted to avoid conflict, so neutrality made sense to both. Austria is not a member of NATO. It joined the EU in 1995. Russia never had any particular political influence there.

Ukraine's situation was and is NOTHING like Austria's in 1945. For starters, Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union. Ukraine's economy was therefore totally integrated with Russia's. Ukraine is a mostly Slavic country and is 78% Eastern Orthodox. Ukraine very definitely IS in the European Plain. Ukraine therefore is an important factor in Russian defense. Ukraine also shares a very long common border with Russia. More importantly, Ukraine contained the home port of the Russian Black Sea fleet. It also could interdict traffic to/from the Sea of Azov.

After Ukraine did not join the Russian Federation in 1991 it became independent. It was militarily neutral, although it retained close ties with Russia.  In 2004 the presidential election was overturned by the courts in response to widespread improper interference by Russia in eastern Ukraine. Consult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_history_of_Ukraine for whatever details you might want. Russia continued to be the gorilla in the room until 2014. At that point the Ukrainian legislature overwhelmingly  passed a resolution to seek closer ties with the EU leading to eventual membership. The Russian aligned president refused to implement the decision. This resulted in the Euromaidan revolution. The President fled to Russia.

Russia responded by seizing Crimea, a part of the territory of a militarily neutral Ukraine. This action happened well before there was a hint that Ukraine wanted to join NATO. At that point, all Ukraine was trying to do was join the EU, something Austria, the "prototype" for Kissinger's  neutrality, had already done. It was absolutely clear that Russia was unwilling to allow an independent Ukraine that was not a client state of Russia. From 2004 to 2014 they more-or less were exactly that, "neutral" but beholden to Russia, with Russia repeatedly interfering in their internal affairs. Russia's violent reaction to Ukraine's even attempting to exercise their independence and assert their "neutrality" clearly demonstrates Dr. Kissinger was, once again, mistaken.