02-23-2025, 09:18 PM
The overriding priority is ending the bloodshed. Ukraine must preserve its young men.
Russia can be motivated to end the conflict, but wields a superior roster of Missiles, drones and MIRVs.
Ukraine has drones... with limited range and payloads, and lacks 200,000 more soldiers to fling against the vicious machine.
So, what will Russia require to agree to an Armistice?
The only equals at the table are Russia and USA.
No other party has the wherewithal to impose their will. Europe does not. Ukraine does not.
A "Nice world" of salons and protocols in Europe does not exist, and they seem to prove that with each lunch they assemble.
Then, Macron visits Trump on Monday -- probably on peacekeeping troops. [But, Macron's hold on France is wobbling greatly]
So does Starmer visit from UK on Thursday, perhaps the least effective leader that NATO could send.
Mark Rutte at NATO is articulate but can only use persuasion, not force.
Merz, now in Germany, will take several weeks to consolidate his Chancellorship domestically (with SPD, Greens).
Trump has an affinity for Duda in Poland, personally, but Duda's term ends in June. Polish voters face a crowded field.
-- but Poland will still come down to Civic Union (centre-left; Tusk) vs PiS Law & Justice (hard right nationalist).
Europe faces a real problem sending a messenger with enough wheelbase that Trump will listen to.
... watch very conservative Markus Söder, the head of Bavaria's CSU within the CDU alliance, to emerge as a "Trump Whisperer".
Russia can be motivated to end the conflict, but wields a superior roster of Missiles, drones and MIRVs.
Ukraine has drones... with limited range and payloads, and lacks 200,000 more soldiers to fling against the vicious machine.
So, what will Russia require to agree to an Armistice?
The only equals at the table are Russia and USA.
No other party has the wherewithal to impose their will. Europe does not. Ukraine does not.
A "Nice world" of salons and protocols in Europe does not exist, and they seem to prove that with each lunch they assemble.
Then, Macron visits Trump on Monday -- probably on peacekeeping troops. [But, Macron's hold on France is wobbling greatly]
So does Starmer visit from UK on Thursday, perhaps the least effective leader that NATO could send.
Mark Rutte at NATO is articulate but can only use persuasion, not force.
Merz, now in Germany, will take several weeks to consolidate his Chancellorship domestically (with SPD, Greens).
Trump has an affinity for Duda in Poland, personally, but Duda's term ends in June. Polish voters face a crowded field.
-- but Poland will still come down to Civic Union (centre-left; Tusk) vs PiS Law & Justice (hard right nationalist).
Europe faces a real problem sending a messenger with enough wheelbase that Trump will listen to.
... watch very conservative Markus Söder, the head of Bavaria's CSU within the CDU alliance, to emerge as a "Trump Whisperer".