[GK3]

Per ISW (which may or may not be a neutral source), the Russian position basically hasn’t moved from the proposal they made in Istanbul in early 2022.  The main provisions of that proposal were:

• Ukraine would have to amend its constitution to remove a clause committing to the pursuit of NATO membership and add a commitment to permanent neutrality
  
• Russian was to become an official language
  
• Russian armed forces would be capped at 85,000 troops and restricted to 342 tanks, 519 pieces of artillery, and missiles with ranges under 40 km
  
• Banning of the provision of foreign weapons or armed forces
  
• Ukraine’s neutrality would be guaranteed by the US, UK, China, France, and Russia, but all would have to agree on a response to a violation (which essentially gave Russia a veto over any action)
  
• All bilateral security agreements with Ukraine would be cancelled
  

If that reporting is accurate, I can see why Ukraine is, shall we say, hesitant of any deal.

BC

Very True!  Any deal dependent on a Putin led Russia adhering to any agreement is a pipe dream. Now Putin is not a Spring Chicken and no one is sure how long he will be around.  I feel certain that Putin feels that Ukraine is a historic part of Russia and as long as he runs Russia, he is going to do all he can to do to take over the Ukraine. I am certain he will not give up any part of Kursk occupied by Ukraine.  So what does Ukraine get out of a peace treaty?  Probably only a temporary cessation of hostilities. I believe the rare minerals deposits are generally undeveloped and it will take a major investment to make them productive.  Should we really trust the Russians to allow us to develop those deposits and then profit from them?  My guess they will be happy for us to pay to do the work and then they can take them.

[GK3]

Per ISW (which may or may not be a neutral source), the Russian position basically hasn’t moved from the proposal they made in Istanbul in early 2022.  The main provisions of that proposal were:

• Ukraine would have to amend its constitution to remove a clause committing to the pursuit of NATO membership and add a commitment to permanent neutrality
  
• Russian was to become an official language
  
• Russian armed forces would be capped at 85,000 troops and restricted to 342 tanks, 519 pieces of artillery, and missiles with ranges under 40 km
  
• Banning of the provision of foreign weapons or armed forces
  
• Ukraine’s neutrality would be guaranteed by the US, UK, China, France, and Russia, but all would have to agree on a response to a violation (which essentially gave Russia a veto over any action)
  
• All bilateral security agreements with Ukraine would be cancelled
  

If that reporting is accurate, I can see why Ukraine is, shall we say, hesitant of any deal.

BC

Very True!  Any deal dependent on a Putin led Russia adhering to any agreement is a pipe dream. Now Putin is not a Spring Chicken and no one is sure how long he will be around.  I feel certain that Putin feels that Ukraine is a historic part of Russia and as long as he runs Russia, he is going to do all he can to do to take over the Ukraine. I am certain he will not give up any part of Kursk occupied by Ukraine.  So what does Ukraine get out of a peace treaty?  Probably only a temporary cessation of hostilities. I believe the rare minerals deposits are generally undeveloped and it will take a major investment to make them productive.  Should we really trust the Russians to allow us to develop those deposits and then profit from them?  My guess they will be happy for us to pay to do the work and then they can take them.