[Goose]

One might argue that the U.S. made this deal solely to claim credit for extracting something from Ukraine where no one else has been able to achieve that during the last 3 years.

I agree that this "deal" was made solely to create the appearance of receiving some kind of payment in return for US efforts. AFAIK no one previously had even attempted to extract "payment", as everyone firmly believed it was very much in their own best interest that Ukraine prevail.

I choose to look at the situation more optimistically for now.  The new U.S. administration has made a public announcement that it is betting on Ukraine to survive, and that's worth something even if the U.S. is betting with house money and even if Ukraine might not payout upon a successful outcome.

It is worth something, but  exactly what is hard to know. It may have met the domestic political "requirement" of demonstrating that the US was not giving aid without a promise of some "return on investment". That does provide "cover" for continuing aid to Ukraine. The ROI is indeed contingent on Ukraine surviving. That is grounds for some optimism.

[Goose]

One might argue that the U.S. made this deal solely to claim credit for extracting something from Ukraine where no one else has been able to achieve that during the last 3 years.

I agree that this "deal" was made solely to create the appearance of receiving some kind of payment in return for US efforts. AFAIK no one previously had even attempted to extract "payment", as everyone firmly believed it was very much in their own best interest that Ukraine prevail.

I choose to look at the situation more optimistically for now.  The new U.S. administration has made a public announcement that it is betting on Ukraine to survive, and that's worth something even if the U.S. is betting with house money and even if Ukraine might not payout upon a successful outcome.

It is worth something, but  exactly what is hard to know. It may have met the domestic political "requirement" of demonstrating that the US was not giving aid without a promise of some "return on investment". That does provide "cover" for continuing aid to Ukraine. The ROI is indeed contingent on Ukraine surviving. That is grounds for some optimism.