03-03-2025, 08:37 PM
(03-03-2025, 07:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: I agree it is very bad for Ukraine. I still think they will be able to remain a sovereign nation for some time as Russia's military is extremely depleted.
The one silver lining to this is that Ukraine may be able to "take the gloves off" in some ways they were restricted from before when having to concern themselves with US opinions on what they did or didn't blow up or kill. Perhaps not yet, they still probably think they should do everything possible to see if the US will get back on side. But once that becomes obviously clear, look out. More blown pipelines, more assassinations in Russia. All stuff they have demonstrated capability for already, but only infrequently.
You make some good points. Considering the current situaton, I would take the position if I were Ukraine that any restrictions attached to use of American Weapons are henceforth invalid and will not be adhered to.
ATM, on paper, Russia wins the war, but they are still a long ways from winning it. The more cheap FPV drones they can produce the more they can replace front line Infantry. The Russians have proven themselves underachievers at stopping drone attacks. I think whoever wins the drone technology war probably wins the war. If Ukraine can continue to produce thousands of cheap FPV drones with protected guidance and control systems then I think Russia could be in a world of hurt. Buying drones from Iran and and soldiers from NK will only work so long. I think the Russian People will absorb a lot, but as they proved in Afghanistan, eventually they say Nyet. Putin is not a young man, while he might not fall to his death from a basement apartment, he may simply die due to natural causes.
It seems to me that Russia has fought WWI and WWII types of wars because it could and it never faced an enemy that could force it to change. Now it has, much as we did first in Viet Nam then through the Middle East. They tried it once in Afghanistan and we all know how that worked out.
So the big question is how much loss and suffering can Putin sell at home. Western Europe has populations of about 200 million, Russia has a population of about 140 million. In my opinion, they only thing that makes Russia player in today's world is it's nuclear arsenal.
If Western Europe and perhaps South Korea or others can provide enough help in the short term, trying to take Ukraine might simply be a bridge too far. Russia has a finite amount of manpower they can apply, assuming of course they want to feed their people and keep all their oil fields and refineries running.
I regret we seem to have withdrawn our support, but Ukraine has not yet lost.
