03-07-2025, 01:44 PM
(03-07-2025, 12:08 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Predictable. Who is next? Does the U.S. have leverage to be able to deter Poland (or others likely to follow Poland's lead) from doing this? Does Poland get any military cooperation from the U.S. that's irreplaceable? Let's assume for the sake of argument that the U.S. would be willing to impose sanctions against Poland (or copycats) to deter Poland (or copycats) from pursuing nukes. Would/could the EU honor those sanctions?Using France as an example, no, the US wouldn't impose sanctions. Back then, we blustered a bit but really did nothing. We did nothing when France left the military arm of NATO either. We didn't impose sanctions back in the day where we were willing to guarantee an nuclear umbrella for NATO. Since apparently we no longer are willing to do that, it seems irrational to deny NATO nations the option of doing it themselves. The rest of the EU would, for that reason if not others, not honor any sanctions the US might impose. Right now, it seems reasonable for Poland to assume that they are doing exactly what the US wants them to do. They are defending themselves. Of course, that has side effects, proliferation being the most obvious. There are others that operationally may be just as bad. I am waiting for Turkey, Greece, and Montenegro to announce their new nuclear programs. That will be fun to watch :-).