[Goose]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

If Putin reaches the point he is perceived as weak, he can fall out of underground parking garage windows. Unfortunately IMO it is improbable that will happen anytime real soon. Putin is riding high at home for having kept the US president waiting for half an hour on the phone. Right now he is calling the tune in negotiations and the US is apparently dancing to it. Appearances are more important than substance.
 
I do think that if Putin hasn't achieved a cease-fire on his terms (which would doom Ukraine to eventual Russian occupation) by June or so the Russian public may actually notice. Slow progress may also lead to Putin saying or doing something that will de-rail negotiations. Then things may change. The concept of victory being just around the corner evaporating can lead to despair and anger about a never-ending war very quickly.
 
Ukraine's strikes on Russian fuel export facilities can play a very large role in generating that anger. Strikes on military targets are obviously very useful to Ukraine staying in the war and must continue. Their effects are unfortunately not obvious to the average Russian and in a totally controlled media may not even be reported. However, if prices are going up and one can't buy fuel, even if only temporarily, that can't be hidden.

[Goose]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

If Putin reaches the point he is perceived as weak, he can fall out of underground parking garage windows. Unfortunately IMO it is improbable that will happen anytime real soon. Putin is riding high at home for having kept the US president waiting for half an hour on the phone. Right now he is calling the tune in negotiations and the US is apparently dancing to it. Appearances are more important than substance.
 
I do think that if Putin hasn't achieved a cease-fire on his terms (which would doom Ukraine to eventual Russian occupation) by June or so the Russian public may actually notice. Slow progress may also lead to Putin saying or doing something that will de-rail negotiations. Then things may change. The concept of victory being just around the corner evaporating can lead to despair and anger about a never-ending war very quickly.
 
Ukraine's strikes on Russian fuel export facilities can play a very large role in generating that anger. Strikes on military targets are obviously very useful to Ukraine staying in the war and must continue. Their effects are unfortunately not obvious to the average Russian and in a totally controlled media may not even be reported. However, if prices are going up and one can't buy fuel, even if only temporarily, that can't be hidden.