(03-30-2025, 07:16 AM)GK3 Wrote: If anyone has the interest, here is a fairly recent list of the rare explorations and developments in the USA.The US has adequate supplies of most "rare earths" present in the country to exploit. Right now, that isn't really necessary because Mountain Pass mine can provide enough ore to meet domestic demand. It contains most (not all) the "rare earth" elements we need. This has been true for many, many years. The main problem is that it is impossible to refine these materials in the US using any process that meets both EPA standards and is economically competitive. For may years the output of Mountain Pass was shipped overseas to be refined. Some of the resulting products (much, much physically smaller volume after refining) were shipped back to the US. Much more of it was incorporated into "finished goods" in China for export back to the US. We were (are) effectively shipping our pollution issues elsewhere.
https://www.google.com/search?q=developm...e&ie=UTF-8
If you end up in conflict, you don't want critical assets located where they are subject to seizure or their shipment by sea and air would be subject to interdiction. We have I believe the 2nd largest rare earth deposits in the world but have been slow to develop them due to extraction challenges and environmental concerns.
New research shows there maybe very large amounts of rare earth elements in the piles of coal ash across the USA. Research is on going in how to get enough out to make it worth it.
Why give the money to Ukraine, spend it on developing assets here at home. Ukraine can certainly use the money, but we need independence from foreign sources if possible.
Mining and ore refining in the US face major economic impediments. US workers typically get much higher wages for the same work than the "foreign" competition. Copper is a "poster child" for this problem. Mining and refining are both "dirty" jobs. Mining is dangerous. It is also not an "urban" activity. For example, Mountain Pass overlooks the middle of nowhere. Finding people who are skilled enough and willing to do the work isn't easy.
Ore extraction in the US has serious regulatory costs. Much of this regulation exists because mining companies would simply abandon mines that were no longer economically viable. This left big holes in the ground with piles of overburden scattered across the landscape. Water pollution by heavy metals leaching out of the tailings was a serious problem, along with many others. Initial attempts at forcing remediation failed because companies would simply declare bankruptcy, leaving a toxic mess for the government to clean up. To stop this, both Federal and State laws compel mining companies to provide remediation insurance. This is vastly expensive and is required before the mine has any chance of returning money to pay for it.
Refining is even more problematic. There are usually several different ways to approach the problem. All are "polluting", some more than others. Companies operating in the US have to "mitigate" whatever residual pollution they produce. Companies operating in places where environmental regulation is slack to non-existent can chose their process based totally on economics and ignore the resulting environmental effects. That gives them a permanent massive competitive advantage. At one time we did refine "rare earths" in the US, but everybody doing it went out of business.
There are efforts being made in the US to restore end-to-end refining capability for rare earths in the US. Essentially all of them involve some kind of government subsidy. Experience teaches us that this approach does not work long-term. One of the "advantages" of capitalism is that the market inevitably finds the lowest-cost producer. Countries that seek even limited autarky pay a price. That price often turns out to be exorbitant. An example of this type of effort is the Jones act that attempts to preserve the merchant marine and shipbuilding in the US. It has manifestly failed to do so. We are now fighting a losing battle to build warships on the bones of what is left of our shipyards. Nobody yet has demonstrated an approach that is economically feasible. The government simply cannot afford to pay what it will take.
Rare earths are probably in the same category. Building an industry that can support the entire domestic demand for rare earths that is subsidized to the point of making it competitive with imports is going to be VERY expensive. Getting private investment in such industry will be problematic. If congress decides to stop paying an adequate subsidy the industry will collapse. Too risky. An industry that only supports a "defense essential" capacity is even less economically attractive. On top of that the economic effect of a wartime cutoff on domestic industry probably wouldn't be viable. I don't have an "answer", but IMO it is unlikely that rare earth refining in the US has a future as long as other countries are eager to let us export our pollution.
The last thing we need is a source of raw materials that is far away and under perpetual threat from Russia. If these sites were for certain economically exploitable it is probable they would already have been by the Ukrainians "recently" and by the Soviet Union previously. An increase in demand can make previously unattractive mining opportunities marginally viable. The "marginally" part becomes a big problem in keeping them open. Nobody wants to risk many. many millions of dollars building an operation that 1) may not "pan out" in the first place, and 2)can be rendered uneconomic by a 2% move in the price of its product.
