04-18-2025, 10:47 AM
Unfortunately Rubio and Vance are giving somewhat opposite messages. That could just be lack of coordination in the administration or it could be some kind of attempt at a diplomatic carrot and stick. Who knows which it is.
It is not at all surprising that the Ukrainians and Russians have irreconcilable positions. The goal of diplomacy is to square that circle. So far diplomacy has failed to accomplish that. As many others have stated peace won't happen until both sides are convinced they can't "win" and "settling" for a peace neither really wants is better than continuing fighting. Putin for sure isn't there yet.
The Administration does have it in its power to significantly tighten the screws. The idea of a "secondary boycott" in the form of tariffs on nations doing business in Russian oil could both send a message and actually make Putin's position considerably less tenable. The obvious problem is that the Administration doesn't seem to believe that forcing Russia to want peace is in the best interest of the US. We talk about "strong action" and then do nothing. If we actually did further sanction Russia, it just might convince them that wanting peace is better for them than continuing to fight. Maybe that will happen.
If the US simply washes its hands of Ukraine, the worst part will not be the loss of further US kinetic military aid. That will be a massive loss of course. It may all by itself give Russia the victory it seeks, independent of what the Europeans can provide. However the real catastrophic loss will be the loss of US tactical and strategic intelligence. The Europeans cannot replace that capability in the near term. In fact, they themselves rely in some measure on the US for those capabilities. Ukraine has some good HUMINT capability, but it has succeeded in hanging on in this war because they get from the US a daily updated Russian ORBAT and intelligence summary. They can therefore extrapolate their own intelligence summary and act accordingly. Surprising Ukraine at this point isn't actually possible. Without our help, it could be. Ukraine doesn't have enough manpower to compensate for surprise with mass. They are also too immobile to compensate with speed. It only takes once.
It is not at all surprising that the Ukrainians and Russians have irreconcilable positions. The goal of diplomacy is to square that circle. So far diplomacy has failed to accomplish that. As many others have stated peace won't happen until both sides are convinced they can't "win" and "settling" for a peace neither really wants is better than continuing fighting. Putin for sure isn't there yet.
The Administration does have it in its power to significantly tighten the screws. The idea of a "secondary boycott" in the form of tariffs on nations doing business in Russian oil could both send a message and actually make Putin's position considerably less tenable. The obvious problem is that the Administration doesn't seem to believe that forcing Russia to want peace is in the best interest of the US. We talk about "strong action" and then do nothing. If we actually did further sanction Russia, it just might convince them that wanting peace is better for them than continuing to fight. Maybe that will happen.
If the US simply washes its hands of Ukraine, the worst part will not be the loss of further US kinetic military aid. That will be a massive loss of course. It may all by itself give Russia the victory it seeks, independent of what the Europeans can provide. However the real catastrophic loss will be the loss of US tactical and strategic intelligence. The Europeans cannot replace that capability in the near term. In fact, they themselves rely in some measure on the US for those capabilities. Ukraine has some good HUMINT capability, but it has succeeded in hanging on in this war because they get from the US a daily updated Russian ORBAT and intelligence summary. They can therefore extrapolate their own intelligence summary and act accordingly. Surprising Ukraine at this point isn't actually possible. Without our help, it could be. Ukraine doesn't have enough manpower to compensate for surprise with mass. They are also too immobile to compensate with speed. It only takes once.