(04-20-2025, 07:10 AM)GK3 Wrote: Our moderators have a very difficult task. I refer you, myself and others to Carl von Clausewitz's statement that War is merely the continuation of policy by other means. If you accept his theory then War is simply another form of politics, plain and simple. Personally I believe the Ukrainian situation is a clear confirmation of his theory.
That said I believe this board is not the place for the discussion that can arrive from consideration of his theory as it applies to this situation. What is very interesting about this war is that it appears to be a watershed moment in the development of tactics, weapons and strategic thinking about the conduct of conflict between parties.
I think this NYT article clearly articulates how this watershed moment is happening: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025...hs.htmlhap
It describes how tanks, including the Abrams have been reduced to having little value. Drones dominate the frontlines and miles of fiber optic cable dangle from the trees. Watch that film clip of a Ukrainian drone flying along a trench line dropping molten metal on the occupants. A far cry from my day in the jungles of SE Asia.
There has been a lot of discussion this board of drone warfare, but the problem is that it is developing so fast that keep up with it is very hard and as the Time article describes some of this development does not occur in a lab but in a bunker in the war zone. How many drones can you build for the cost of a single M1 Abrams? This is basically war on the cheap but just as deadly. Another issue this conflict is raises is whether a small country and hold its own against a much larger country simply through drones. Drones are far cheaper, easier to produce and just as effective. How much do they level the playing field. Maybe none at all in the long term since if you do not have any land in which to put your bunker then you are sort of of out of luck.
Another aspect of this is how much is this costing Russia in the long term.
Another thought is will this war result in simply a war between drones? If drones have taken artillery and armor out of play and reduced the infantry to cowering in its bunkers, will the side with the best drones win?
I think that this conflict will force every country with an army of significance will have to rethink everything after seeing how this conflict is playing out.
There is a lot of stuff that has sort of passed under the radar in the last few months:
1. Ukraine has apparently succeeded in making the Russian glide bombs far less effective. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...m-useless/
2. The Russian Offensive is now more often measured in meters gained versus kilometers and those meters gained at significant cost to Russia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
3. Ukraine may be getting stronger faster than Russia: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/uk...ace-talks/
4: The war and the Russian Economy: https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/a...s-economy/
Although we have withdrawn much if not all of our support, Ukraine is producing far more than it used to, particularly in the drone arena. Western Europe seems to be trying to fill in at least some of the losses caused by our withdrawal. Russia seems to continue to follow a strategic plan based on throwing untrained soldiers into so-called "meat" attacks which results in losses they probably can't continue forever before political issues arise at home. If it is true that Ukraine has succeeded in jamming or otherwise reducing the effectiveness of the Russian glide bombs that is a big plus for Ukraine since it has already reduced the effectiveness of Russian armor and artillery via their drone attacks. If Ukraine can produce a sufficient number of their Neptune cruise missile it will further complicate the Russian defensive issues. Russia seems to have no qualms about wasting thousands of soldiers while the Ukraine seems to be trying to replace soldiers with drones. Big question is how long can Russia continue its current strategy before Putin starts to get pushback. These articles provide a variety of viewpoints. No one knows how it will actually work out.
