04-25-2025, 10:31 AM
(04-25-2025, 09:22 AM)GK3 Wrote: Ever since the terms were made public, primarily that Ukraine give up claims to Crimea, the whole peace talk thing made no sense at all. If you know one side won't agree to the terms, why do it?There are several possible reasons, one or more of which may be true at the same time. If Putin was actually looking at a negotiation it might make sense to start out with a very hard line position. Maybe what seems impossible will become possible. If not, Putin could concede things that were never going to happen anyway. That would get Putin the maximum benefits available. It is possible that will still happen. It depends on whether the US really does intend to abandon negotiations and whether the Europeans will step in to continue/join them. It could also be a tactic to stall negotiations long enough for Russia to complete some set of goals in the Donbas. Putin may believe there is a "stopping point" that leaves him in a much stronger position than he now holds. Lastly, it could be simply a means to torpedo negotiations while absolving Russia from "blame", at least among Putin supporters.
Quote:Ukraine is probably stronger now than it was 9 months ago.Not IMO. No matter how one looks at it the removal of all US military aid and intelligence support will be at best a major blow to Ukraine's ability to prevent further Russian advances, let alone driving Russia out of Ukraine. The level of attrition Russia is inflicting on Ukraine is increasing, not decreasing. Russia has managed to produce more of their "better" cruise missiles and they have also resumed using tactical ballistic missiles at least occasionally. The Ukraine definitely has to ration its Patriot missiles which lets more threats through. Eventually Ukraine will run out of Patriots. IMO the Russian "spring offensive" has not produced any significant results yet. I am guessing Russia is waiting to see what happens with US support and what (if anything) the Europeans will do. No point in losing lots of troops if you don't have to do so. It is also possible that the Russians have more problems than we know about. I suspect that if that is the case those problems will get "solved" one way or another. The war definitely isn't on "pause", but it seems that the intensity on the Russian side just isn't there yet.
Quote:The Russian Economy has issues and if the war drags on what happens? Is Putin just trying to convince the home folk that he is really trying to stop the war and its continuing just because Ukraine won't give up Crimea. Maybe he can sell that at home, seems unlikely.The Russian economy does have issues. It has had issues for a long time. What will come of that is of course TBD. The US and/or the Europeans could increase the pressure by applying more sanctions on Russia. How probable that is is unfortunately very questionable. In any case it appears very improbable that the Russian economy will force Putin to stop the war in the short term. This is especially true if Putin can get the sanctions lifted without doing so.
IMO Putin isn't trying to convince his public he is trying to stop the war. In fact, it is the opposite. His public needs to see him win the war. Putin's main worry is that if he stops short of occupying all of Ukraine and eliminating the "Nazis" the public will be quite "upset". The public will become even more cognizant of the losses their country and the "public" have suffered. Convincing them it was "worth it" without a "victory" is problematic. That undoubtedly worries Putin much more.
