[Mick]

Good recent article from RUSI on the issue of Russian nuke usage in the event of a Russian military collapse.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-researc...uclear-war

For most of us in the West, a wholesale Russian collapse would be a cause for celebration, heralding a rapid end to the war and an alleviation of some of the economic effects which the conflict has engendered – in particular high energy and food costs. However, in reality, a mutiny would entail a few days of very significant risk.

...

Moscow would be in turmoil following the mutiny and the loss of so much territory. Putin would doubtless blame and sack Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Army Chief Valery Gerasimov, but his own fingerprints are too firmly on the war to avoid some consequences. This might be the moment when Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB) or Nikolai Patrushev (a previous FSB Director) makes a move to supplant Putin. The strong probability is that any new leader would be from the same ex-KGB stable as Putin and equally or even more hawkish.

Medvedev is right that no nuclear-armed country has ever lost a war of national survival. This would be new territory for the whole world, and it would be a high-risk moment. Furthermore, a power struggle in Moscow would raise questions about the command authority over the Russian nuclear arsenal. In the words of a former senior UK defence official, ‘Mutiny would by definition destroy the reliability of the chain of command’.

This is when bad or even disastrous decisions could be made. The detonation of a nuclear device over the Black Sea or over central Ukraine as a warning shot to stop the Ukrainian advance might even be at the lower end of the spectrum of options presented to a Russian leadership in disarray. A new nationalist leader in Moscow might argue that NATO countries had enabled the Ukrainian success and should therefore be regarded as targets.

Medvedev threatened nuclear strikes on NATO countries. He's not defense minister anymore which frees him to expand his rhetoric, this time threatening Sweden and Finland (and other new NATO members).

Ukraine war latest: Russia threatens Nato with nuclear strikes

I used to have an event manager who would screw up on occasion. I knew she screwed up because whenever she did, she wouldn't tell me about the screwup right away, she would have a senior partner send me an "unprompted" note lauding her skills and capabilities. It was always a "brace yourself" moment. 

I get that same feeling every time I read a senior Russian official threaten a NATO country or Ukraine with nuclear annihilation. It feels like they are signaling something. We don't like that NATO countries are funding Ukraine's war, and we want it to stop, but we reserve the right to use North Korean and Chinese assets?

Ukraine war latest: Russia threatens Nato with nuclear strikes

[Mick]

Good recent article from RUSI on the issue of Russian nuke usage in the event of a Russian military collapse.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-researc...uclear-war

For most of us in the West, a wholesale Russian collapse would be a cause for celebration, heralding a rapid end to the war and an alleviation of some of the economic effects which the conflict has engendered – in particular high energy and food costs. However, in reality, a mutiny would entail a few days of very significant risk.

...

Moscow would be in turmoil following the mutiny and the loss of so much territory. Putin would doubtless blame and sack Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Army Chief Valery Gerasimov, but his own fingerprints are too firmly on the war to avoid some consequences. This might be the moment when Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB) or Nikolai Patrushev (a previous FSB Director) makes a move to supplant Putin. The strong probability is that any new leader would be from the same ex-KGB stable as Putin and equally or even more hawkish.

Medvedev is right that no nuclear-armed country has ever lost a war of national survival. This would be new territory for the whole world, and it would be a high-risk moment. Furthermore, a power struggle in Moscow would raise questions about the command authority over the Russian nuclear arsenal. In the words of a former senior UK defence official, ‘Mutiny would by definition destroy the reliability of the chain of command’.

This is when bad or even disastrous decisions could be made. The detonation of a nuclear device over the Black Sea or over central Ukraine as a warning shot to stop the Ukrainian advance might even be at the lower end of the spectrum of options presented to a Russian leadership in disarray. A new nationalist leader in Moscow might argue that NATO countries had enabled the Ukrainian success and should therefore be regarded as targets.

Medvedev threatened nuclear strikes on NATO countries. He's not defense minister anymore which frees him to expand his rhetoric, this time threatening Sweden and Finland (and other new NATO members).

Ukraine war latest: Russia threatens Nato with nuclear strikes

I used to have an event manager who would screw up on occasion. I knew she screwed up because whenever she did, she wouldn't tell me about the screwup right away, she would have a senior partner send me an "unprompted" note lauding her skills and capabilities. It was always a "brace yourself" moment. 

I get that same feeling every time I read a senior Russian official threaten a NATO country or Ukraine with nuclear annihilation. It feels like they are signaling something. We don't like that NATO countries are funding Ukraine's war, and we want it to stop, but we reserve the right to use North Korean and Chinese assets?

Ukraine war latest: Russia threatens Nato with nuclear strikes