[Goose]

How on earth did Ukraine get trucks full of drones and operators so far into Russia?  Their Opsec is incredible.

I think its highly likely the drivers of the trucks were completely unaware of their contents or true purpose. SBU has claimed all their operatives are all safely back in Ukraine, and that the attack has been planned for a year and a half.

The public statements of the SBU are of course not to be entirely trusted :-). It is also difficult to know how these drones were "controlled", if indeed they were at all. The drones were supposedly launched "automatically" from the trucks. IMO that makes a lot of sense. These drones could also have had their respective target exact coordinates uploaded just before launch by as single operator located many miles away, possibly in Ukraine itself! The Russian phone network works quite well for such things. Although the drones involved were "FPV" type it would not be necessary to use them that way on large targets that are not (yet) moving. That is a lot simpler and less risky to operatives. The problem with using a conventional FPV approach is that each drone would require an operator. That is IMO too many people needed within 10 km or so of the target. Those people would have a significant risk of being caught. Of course, if each truck was also equipped with a satellite network terminal used as a "repeater" the operators could be located in Ukraine itself. Works  for Creech, just slightly differently :-). There is an "interesting" third possibility : https://united24media.com/latest-news/mu...s-how-8802 This may be maskirovka, but it would be even more interesting if it is true.

Whatever may be "true", the SBU has no reason to compromise its methods. They aren't going to do so. They may release a plausible explanation of how it was done, but it is probably a fabrication. They SBU stated the drones were "smuggled into Russia". Could be, but Russian civilians are actively buying Chinese drones via the internet to supply to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. No reason in an 18 month long operation that the SBU couldn't do the same inside Russia. It wouldn't be particularly suspicious even if the FSB was "watching". IMO it is almost certain that the wooden/sheet metal drone containers were locally sourced. The trucks themselves may have been purchased or rented. Free lance drivers could have then been hired. It is also possible the "delivery" was contracted with several different "legitimate" Russian trucking companies that had no idea what they were delivering. It could have also involved Russian organized crime that was deceived into believing it was some kind of smuggling/tax avoidance operation. Lots of possibilities.

I will be "satisfied" if we get 3rd party estimates of the number of aircraft damaged or destroyed. Initial reports are almost always wrong, but it looks like the destruction is "significant". Russia is not building TU-95s or TU-22Ms anymore. They can't replace them, although they have some airframes in storage that could in theory be upgraded and "brought back" in service. Not quick and not cheap, even if it is actually possible. Russia is actively building A-50s, but VERY slowly. The TU-160 is in "production" with outstanding orders. It is going much slower than A-50s because it involves building new airframes. A-50s are modifications of existing airframes. In any case it is highly probable the Ukraine war will be over for years before replacements for the destroyed aircraft could be supplied. North Korea doesn't make them either :-).

[Goose]

How on earth did Ukraine get trucks full of drones and operators so far into Russia?  Their Opsec is incredible.

I think its highly likely the drivers of the trucks were completely unaware of their contents or true purpose. SBU has claimed all their operatives are all safely back in Ukraine, and that the attack has been planned for a year and a half.

The public statements of the SBU are of course not to be entirely trusted :-). It is also difficult to know how these drones were "controlled", if indeed they were at all. The drones were supposedly launched "automatically" from the trucks. IMO that makes a lot of sense. These drones could also have had their respective target exact coordinates uploaded just before launch by as single operator located many miles away, possibly in Ukraine itself! The Russian phone network works quite well for such things. Although the drones involved were "FPV" type it would not be necessary to use them that way on large targets that are not (yet) moving. That is a lot simpler and less risky to operatives. The problem with using a conventional FPV approach is that each drone would require an operator. That is IMO too many people needed within 10 km or so of the target. Those people would have a significant risk of being caught. Of course, if each truck was also equipped with a satellite network terminal used as a "repeater" the operators could be located in Ukraine itself. Works  for Creech, just slightly differently :-). There is an "interesting" third possibility : https://united24media.com/latest-news/mu...s-how-8802 This may be maskirovka, but it would be even more interesting if it is true.

Whatever may be "true", the SBU has no reason to compromise its methods. They aren't going to do so. They may release a plausible explanation of how it was done, but it is probably a fabrication. They SBU stated the drones were "smuggled into Russia". Could be, but Russian civilians are actively buying Chinese drones via the internet to supply to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. No reason in an 18 month long operation that the SBU couldn't do the same inside Russia. It wouldn't be particularly suspicious even if the FSB was "watching". IMO it is almost certain that the wooden/sheet metal drone containers were locally sourced. The trucks themselves may have been purchased or rented. Free lance drivers could have then been hired. It is also possible the "delivery" was contracted with several different "legitimate" Russian trucking companies that had no idea what they were delivering. It could have also involved Russian organized crime that was deceived into believing it was some kind of smuggling/tax avoidance operation. Lots of possibilities.

I will be "satisfied" if we get 3rd party estimates of the number of aircraft damaged or destroyed. Initial reports are almost always wrong, but it looks like the destruction is "significant". Russia is not building TU-95s or TU-22Ms anymore. They can't replace them, although they have some airframes in storage that could in theory be upgraded and "brought back" in service. Not quick and not cheap, even if it is actually possible. Russia is actively building A-50s, but VERY slowly. The TU-160 is in "production" with outstanding orders. It is going much slower than A-50s because it involves building new airframes. A-50s are modifications of existing airframes. In any case it is highly probable the Ukraine war will be over for years before replacements for the destroyed aircraft could be supplied. North Korea doesn't make them either :-).