(06-10-2025, 01:07 PM)GK3 Wrote: I understand your point about the willingness of the other NATO countries to come to the defense the Baltic States, but I do think the other NATO states would prefer to take the fight to the Russians before they reach their own country. My guess is that the BND probably has a pretty good handle on some of these issues and may well have a good handle on Russian plans.IMO the issue is that many of the nations involved are unsure that Russia taking the Baltics inherently presages Russia reaching their own territory. Even if it does, that decision can be postponed until "later". If you do decide to help the Baltics you will call down upon your head Russian retribution immediately. If you don't participate, Russia may just stop there. They were part of Russia for years and most of Europe did just fine. If they don't stop, the Baltics wouldn't have been much help anyway :-).
I think the BND has pretty good sources inside most European governments, including their own :-). IMO the problem is none of these countries actually yet have a settled policy on NATO without the US. Everybody is still feeling their way. Even more importantly, economic conditions and domestic political considerations, like AfD and the RN have the possibility of forcing a policy change overnight. I do know that some nations are attempting to rely on bilateral relations with the US as an alternative to NATO. No sure that is a good plan, but... Equally, I am sure that even Putin doesn't know what Russian "plans" actually are. He certainly knows his goals, but how he intends to get there is probably heavily dependent on events. One thing I am sure of is that what the head of the BND says publicly probably should be taken with a bag of salt.