[Goose]

Does Ukraine have more F-16s and/or more pilots coming in the pipeline? 

A total of 85 F-16s of various types have been promised to Ukraine. The distribution is 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, 12 from Norway, and 30 from Belgium. Denmark has already delivered 12 F-16s to Ukraine. The 24 from the Netherlands have all been delivered to Ukraine. These aircraft are what Ukraine is currently flying. In addition, another 18 Dutch F-16s have been transferred to Romania and are being used to train pilots at the European F-16 training center (EFTC).  Norway has delivered 10 aircraft to Ukraine, 6 of which are flyable. There is some confusion about the actual state of the Norwegian deliveries. Belgium's F-16 deliveries are contingent on F-35 deliveries from Lockheed. These deliveries have been repeatedly delayed, so when the F-16s can actually leave Belgium is very uncertain. The maintenance status of these F-16s is also a bit uncertain. The current estimate is that all will be transferred by the end of 2028. This is a total of 42 aircraft. 3 aircraft have been destroyed. A 7% loss rate isn't great, but given the circumstances is not all that high. As a point of comparison the USAF lost rate for B-52s in the Linebacker II effort was less than 2%.

Ukraine therefore has 39 flyable F-16s in its inventory.  That is two squadrons worth, more or less. With an 80% availability (pretty high) that would mean 31 jets ready to fly each day. The article https://www.csis.org/analysis/f-16s-unle...e%20losses addresses the actual requirements for a "reasonable" F-16 force in Ukraine.

Ukraine needs close to 12 fighter squadrons to achieve the air support needed for the war on the ground, with four squadrons primarily responsible for each core mission set: (1) suppression of enemy air defenses, (2) air interdiction, and (3) defensive counter air. This aim would require 216 F-16s, with 18 aircraft in each squadron.

Maybe Ukraine can get by with less, but 39 isn't near enough.

How many pilots Ukraine has is another question. The US has trained 12 for sure. Probably a second class has graduated but I can find no reference to that happening. The EFTC has graduated a class that contained Ukrainian pilots (probably 7). This article points to the problem. Ukraine is busy fighting. It is difficult to pull experienced pilots out of the fight to train them on the F-16. They are needed where they are. As I have previously pointed out, pilots of Soviet jets often have difficulty converting to NATO aircraft. There muscle memory is all wrong. https://kyivindependent.com/us-revising-...j-reports/ talks about the shift in training as a result. As of October 17, 2024 Ukraine had only 11 qualified F-16 pilots. Moonfish was the 12th. In any case, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43566 talks about the problem from Ukraine's point of view. It is a recent article. Yes, lack of pilots is a big problem. By now Ukraine probably has "more" pilots but nowhere near the 25 it takes to make up a US 18 aircraft F-16 squadron. The 40 in the article is nonsense.

One may get confused by the articles touting the fact the UK has "trained" 200 F-16 pilots. That just isn't accurate. These pilots have undergone English language training and basic flight training. The accelerated flight training adopted for Ukrainian F-16 pilots will take 18 months. https://www.newsweek.com/uk-ukrainian-f1...ia-2028952. The number of pilots that can be trained to fight in Ukraine per year is clearly inadequate even for the number of F-16s Ukraine already has. This training pipeline is expanding, but very slowly. "Wait til next year" seems to be the permanent motto.

If it's matter of holding out until reinforcements arrive, Ukraine has shown multiple times over that it has the will to do that.

I must admit Ukraine is doing better morale-wise at this point than I expected. IMO the attempt to force Russia into a cease-fire actually helped Ukraine even though it didn't happen. It gave the public hope that even if victory would be impossible, at least an end to the killing and the missile strikes was possible. There was a way ahead other than defeat and all the troops had to do is hold on "for a while". I also expected a strong Russian offensive when the mud went away. That did not happen, although the steady Russian infantry attacks are advancing faster than back in 2024. If Russia does mount a "summer offensive" that starts to succeed it is very unclear to me how long Ukraine can hold out. Russia has certainly built up its manpower. It remains to be seen if they can use it.
 
There are also many questions regarding weapons supply to Ukraine. At the present there is still quite a bit of US material that had been previously programmed for Ukraine arriving. As that stream dries up, things will get much harder in Ukraine.  Will the US appropriate more money for weapons? How much can Europe supply, and how quickly? Ukraine will not have enough pilots to operate the 39 F-16s it has until fall, if then. Appearances indicate Ukraine has had an increase in pilots this spring that is allowing them to be more aggressive in the air. That is a "good" thing. Let's see how far they can take it. If they can scare the VKS enough (which apparently doesn't take much) the glide-bomb attacks can be successfully deterred. That is probably the best we can hope for in the near term.

Alternatively, is there a world in which one or more NATO countries decide to enforce a "no fly zone" over the parts of Ukraine that remain in Ukrainian control? 

Absolutely no chance.

[Goose]

Does Ukraine have more F-16s and/or more pilots coming in the pipeline? 

A total of 85 F-16s of various types have been promised to Ukraine. The distribution is 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, 12 from Norway, and 30 from Belgium. Denmark has already delivered 12 F-16s to Ukraine. The 24 from the Netherlands have all been delivered to Ukraine. These aircraft are what Ukraine is currently flying. In addition, another 18 Dutch F-16s have been transferred to Romania and are being used to train pilots at the European F-16 training center (EFTC).  Norway has delivered 10 aircraft to Ukraine, 6 of which are flyable. There is some confusion about the actual state of the Norwegian deliveries. Belgium's F-16 deliveries are contingent on F-35 deliveries from Lockheed. These deliveries have been repeatedly delayed, so when the F-16s can actually leave Belgium is very uncertain. The maintenance status of these F-16s is also a bit uncertain. The current estimate is that all will be transferred by the end of 2028. This is a total of 42 aircraft. 3 aircraft have been destroyed. A 7% loss rate isn't great, but given the circumstances is not all that high. As a point of comparison the USAF lost rate for B-52s in the Linebacker II effort was less than 2%.

Ukraine therefore has 39 flyable F-16s in its inventory.  That is two squadrons worth, more or less. With an 80% availability (pretty high) that would mean 31 jets ready to fly each day. The article https://www.csis.org/analysis/f-16s-unle...e%20losses addresses the actual requirements for a "reasonable" F-16 force in Ukraine.

Ukraine needs close to 12 fighter squadrons to achieve the air support needed for the war on the ground, with four squadrons primarily responsible for each core mission set: (1) suppression of enemy air defenses, (2) air interdiction, and (3) defensive counter air. This aim would require 216 F-16s, with 18 aircraft in each squadron.

Maybe Ukraine can get by with less, but 39 isn't near enough.

How many pilots Ukraine has is another question. The US has trained 12 for sure. Probably a second class has graduated but I can find no reference to that happening. The EFTC has graduated a class that contained Ukrainian pilots (probably 7). This article points to the problem. Ukraine is busy fighting. It is difficult to pull experienced pilots out of the fight to train them on the F-16. They are needed where they are. As I have previously pointed out, pilots of Soviet jets often have difficulty converting to NATO aircraft. There muscle memory is all wrong. https://kyivindependent.com/us-revising-...j-reports/ talks about the shift in training as a result. As of October 17, 2024 Ukraine had only 11 qualified F-16 pilots. Moonfish was the 12th. In any case, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43566 talks about the problem from Ukraine's point of view. It is a recent article. Yes, lack of pilots is a big problem. By now Ukraine probably has "more" pilots but nowhere near the 25 it takes to make up a US 18 aircraft F-16 squadron. The 40 in the article is nonsense.

One may get confused by the articles touting the fact the UK has "trained" 200 F-16 pilots. That just isn't accurate. These pilots have undergone English language training and basic flight training. The accelerated flight training adopted for Ukrainian F-16 pilots will take 18 months. https://www.newsweek.com/uk-ukrainian-f1...ia-2028952. The number of pilots that can be trained to fight in Ukraine per year is clearly inadequate even for the number of F-16s Ukraine already has. This training pipeline is expanding, but very slowly. "Wait til next year" seems to be the permanent motto.

If it's matter of holding out until reinforcements arrive, Ukraine has shown multiple times over that it has the will to do that.

I must admit Ukraine is doing better morale-wise at this point than I expected. IMO the attempt to force Russia into a cease-fire actually helped Ukraine even though it didn't happen. It gave the public hope that even if victory would be impossible, at least an end to the killing and the missile strikes was possible. There was a way ahead other than defeat and all the troops had to do is hold on "for a while". I also expected a strong Russian offensive when the mud went away. That did not happen, although the steady Russian infantry attacks are advancing faster than back in 2024. If Russia does mount a "summer offensive" that starts to succeed it is very unclear to me how long Ukraine can hold out. Russia has certainly built up its manpower. It remains to be seen if they can use it.
 
There are also many questions regarding weapons supply to Ukraine. At the present there is still quite a bit of US material that had been previously programmed for Ukraine arriving. As that stream dries up, things will get much harder in Ukraine.  Will the US appropriate more money for weapons? How much can Europe supply, and how quickly? Ukraine will not have enough pilots to operate the 39 F-16s it has until fall, if then. Appearances indicate Ukraine has had an increase in pilots this spring that is allowing them to be more aggressive in the air. That is a "good" thing. Let's see how far they can take it. If they can scare the VKS enough (which apparently doesn't take much) the glide-bomb attacks can be successfully deterred. That is probably the best we can hope for in the near term.

Alternatively, is there a world in which one or more NATO countries decide to enforce a "no fly zone" over the parts of Ukraine that remain in Ukrainian control? 

Absolutely no chance.