[BostonCard]

I don’t think Israel is deluded into thinking that a secular democracy will arise from the ashes of the current Iranian regime.  I think they would be happy enough to see a secular dictatorship.  I think they view an Egypt-like Iran as an acceptable as far as Israel is concerned.  That would suck for the Iranian people, but Israel would be ok with it, as long as the secular dictatorship isn’t hell-bent on its destruction.

BC

How would you characterize the current government in Syria?  Is a similar outcome among the possible outcomes in Iran?

Not that my opinion is worth much, but too soon to tell on current government in Syria; can't be any worse than the miserably low bar set by the Assad regime.

I don't think a similar outcome is possible among the outcomes in Iran because the new government in Syria is Sunni with historical ties (severed about 10 years ago) to Al Qaida, while Iran is an overwhelmingly Shia country.  It is TBD how much the new government in Syria shed its religious ties; if it becomes technocratic, secular or multi-religious (regardless of how liberal/democratic it is), but if it can then... maybe?  I know too little about Iran to be able to prognosticate what will happen there if the current government falls or what the likelihood of the current government falling would be.  But I think Israel is optimistic that it can come to a "live and let live" accord with that whatever emerges.

BC

[BostonCard]

I don’t think Israel is deluded into thinking that a secular democracy will arise from the ashes of the current Iranian regime.  I think they would be happy enough to see a secular dictatorship.  I think they view an Egypt-like Iran as an acceptable as far as Israel is concerned.  That would suck for the Iranian people, but Israel would be ok with it, as long as the secular dictatorship isn’t hell-bent on its destruction.

BC

How would you characterize the current government in Syria?  Is a similar outcome among the possible outcomes in Iran?

Not that my opinion is worth much, but too soon to tell on current government in Syria; can't be any worse than the miserably low bar set by the Assad regime.

I don't think a similar outcome is possible among the outcomes in Iran because the new government in Syria is Sunni with historical ties (severed about 10 years ago) to Al Qaida, while Iran is an overwhelmingly Shia country.  It is TBD how much the new government in Syria shed its religious ties; if it becomes technocratic, secular or multi-religious (regardless of how liberal/democratic it is), but if it can then... maybe?  I know too little about Iran to be able to prognosticate what will happen there if the current government falls or what the likelihood of the current government falling would be.  But I think Israel is optimistic that it can come to a "live and let live" accord with that whatever emerges.

BC