(06-21-2025, 05:20 PM)gocard14 Wrote: Here's hoping they achieved their desired objective, we can "declare victory", and avoid further involvement or escalation. Of course much of this will come down to Irans response, if they target US bases in the region, choose to act through proxies, or close the straight.We now get to see what Iran's response will be. Ironically the US has bases that are much closer to Iran than Israel does. Iran can reach our bases in the Persian Gulf, our bases in Iraq and our base in Jordan with short range ballistic missiles. These missiles are of no use against Israel because they can't reach it. Iran has LOTS of these missiles. Iran can also target our bases in Iraq and Jordan with militias loyal to Iran that operate in Iraq. Normally Iran would unleash its proxies on Israel, but right now neither of "nearby" ones, Hamas and Hezbollah, are much of a threat. The Houthi are more of a threat to the Red Sea than they are to Israel, and the US is already engaged with them there.
Iran may attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. If they do, the US is going to have to defeat them there. Hopefully that can be done via air power (naval air mostly and USAF where possible) and some limited surface naval power. Hopefully the Gulf States will allow us to continue to use our bases in the area to do that.
Ideally, Iran will refrain from striking the US bases and not threaten navigation in the Persian Gulf. This would allow a negotiated settlement. A de-facto settlement would also be "acceptable". I doubt we will be that lucky. If Iran "just" shoots missiles at our bases we have some options. We can initially be restrained in our response hoping for a negotiated solution. Allowing Iran to save face may be wise. Obviously that may not work, but IMO it is our best choice. If the US has to fight an air war in the Middle East against Iran it will be very messy at best.
IMO the war in Ukraine is probably more important to US (and "western") interests. We don't get to choose our battles though. Israel and Iran have tied our hands in some ways. I am concerned that Netanyahu has successfully outmaneuvered the administration into being an unwilling (and unwitting) ally. Some have said Israel is doing our "dirty work" for us. Going forward, we may be joining in that "dirty work". It won't be an infantry war, but it could still be very much a war.
